NCAA Tournament Bubble Tightens as March Approaches
The race for a spot in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is intensifying with less than a week remaining before the conference tournaments begin. Several teams are firmly on the bubble, with their postseason fates hanging in the balance, according to the latest bracketology projections.
CBS Sports Bracketology currently lists four Big Ten teams among those on the edge of making the 68-team field: UCLA, USC, Indiana, and Ohio State. These teams are positioned between the No. 10 seed line and being among the “First Four Out.”
Ohio State’s struggles to secure a crucial Quad 1 victory continued on Sunday with a 66-60 loss at Michigan State. This defeat drops the Buckeyes to 0-9 in Quad 1 opportunities and places them firmly on the wrong side of the bubble, according to CBS Sports’ model. The team is further hampered by injuries to key players, including guard John Mobley Jr., who has missed the last three games with a hand injury, and third-leading scorer Devin Royal, who was sidelined due to illness during Sunday’s game. Freshman forward Amare Bynum also played ineffectively while battling illness.
USC has also stumbled recently, suffering a Quad 3 home loss to Oregon despite the return of leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara from a three-game injury absence. This loss has pushed the Trojans down in the projections, requiring a strong performance in their upcoming rivalry game against UCLA to regain ground.
Indiana’s resume presents a mixed picture. While the Hoosiers boast three victories over teams currently projected to make the tournament – Purdue, UCLA, and Wisconsin – those wins were all narrow, with two requiring overtime. However, their overall record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games is a concerning 4-10, a mark shared by only Miami (Ohio) among the top 50 teams in the NET rankings.
UCLA, meanwhile, bolstered its tournament chances with a thrilling 95-94 overtime victory over Illinois on Saturday. This win, along with a previous victory over Purdue, demonstrates the Bruins’ potential as a high-ceiling team when performing at their best.
According to Bart Torvik’s “TourneyCast,” a metric used by the NCAA in its bracket selection process, 27 teams are considered “locks” for the tournament, with a 99.8% or better chance of making the field. These teams include seven from the Big Ten: Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The Big 12 has six locks: Iowa State, Arizona, Kansas, Houston, BYU, and Texas Tech. The ACC is represented by six teams: Duke, Louisville, Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, and NC State. The SEC has five: Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee. The Big East has three: UConn, Villanova, and St. John’s, and the remaining locks are Utah State and Saint Louis.
The CBS Sports Bracketology model lists Santa Clara, New Mexico, TCU, and California as the last four teams in the field. VCU, Ohio State, USC, and Indiana are currently the first four teams out. Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, and Arizona State are next in line.
Ohio State has opportunities to improve its standing with upcoming games against Iowa and Purdue, both considered “Quad 1A” opportunities. These games will be critical tests for the Buckeyes as they attempt to secure a bid to the tournament.
