The media presence surrounding the Nancy Guthrie disappearance in Tucson, Arizona, is beginning to subside, though the case remains open and deeply unsettling. Nearly two weeks have passed since Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos last provided a public update, and despite receiving over 20,000 tips, the investigation appears to be at a critical juncture.
The disappearance of Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of “Today” show co-anchor Savannah Guthrie, has captivated the nation. She was last seen on January 31st, after a dinner with her family. Authorities have cleared family members as potential suspects, but have yet to identify a person of interest or even a description of a potential getaway vehicle. The investigation, now entering its fourth week, centers around a handful of key pieces of evidence.
Among the most crucial findings are drops of Guthrie’s blood discovered on her doorstep. The front door Nest camera was also taken, but not before capturing images of a ski-masked, armed individual attempting to obscure the lens with a gloved hand. Authorities have recovered over a dozen gloves in the surrounding community, with one matching the glove worn by the suspect in the video. However, initial DNA analysis has yielded no matches in the FBI’s Combined DNA Index System (CODIS).
The initial flurry of activity following the February 1st kidnapping, including the circulation of ransom notes, has not led to any confirmation of Guthrie’s well-being. Several individuals were briefly detained but subsequently released as investigative leads stalled.
Despite the lack of immediate progress, experts caution against labeling the case “cold,” emphasizing that a breakthrough could occur at any moment. The remaining avenues for investigation, however, are becoming increasingly focused.
1. Forensic Evidence
Investigators are pinning hopes on a potential breakthrough through DNA analysis. Sheriff’s investigators are continuing to analyze DNA recovered from the gloves and Guthrie’s home, which was thoroughly searched after she failed to attend a scheduled church group meeting. The presence of multiple DNA strands – indicating more than one individual – presents a challenge, as Sheriff Nanos acknowledged, stating, “there can be challenges separating DNA.”
A glove found two miles from the scene is believed to be a match to the one worn by the masked suspect, but the DNA extracted from it did not register any hits within CODIS, which contains genetic samples from over 19 million offenders nationwide. Investigators have not disclosed the weight they are assigning to specific pieces of evidence, but experts believe that any DNA belonging to Guthrie discovered outside the home could potentially contain her abductor’s DNA as well.
“We believe that we may have some DNA that may be our suspect, but we won’t know that until that DNA is separated, sorted out, maybe admitted to CODIS, maybe through genetic genealogy,” Nanos told NBC News.
2. Familial DNA
The investigative technique of forensic investigative genetic genealogy (FIGG) – famously used to apprehend the Golden State Killer, Joseph James DeAngelo Jr. – is being considered. FIGG combines public genealogy websites with DNA analysis, a method the National District Attorneys Association hailed as ushering in a “new era in crime solving.”
With FIGG, authorities can compare DNA collected from Guthrie’s home with publicly accessible databases containing genetic profiles submitted for family history research. This can potentially identify distant relatives, allowing investigators to construct a family tree that could lead to a suspect, according to CeCe Moore, a genetic genealogist and co-founder of DNA Justice.
In the Golden State Killer case, investigators utilized old DNA processed in a Ventura County crime lab and, instead of submitting it to CODIS, used a portion of it to search for potential relatives in ancestry databases. However, access to the roughly 50 million genetic profiles held by Ancestry.com, 23andMe, and MyHeritage is restricted, as these companies require a court order or warrant to release such information.
Databases like GEDmatch, FamilyTreeDNA, and DNA Justice are open to law enforcement use but contain fewer than 2 million genetic profiles. Moore noted the challenges in cases involving individuals with Latin American ancestry, stating, “Cases with Latin American subjects are incredibly difficult…because we’re limited to the smallest databases, which are less than 2 million profiles, it’s going to be quite difficult, unless they just get lucky.” Investigators can also conduct familial searches within the CODIS system, legal in Arizona, to identify potential relatives of the suspect.
3. Evidence Breakthrough
Identifying the Suspect: The FBI has identified the suspect’s backpack as a 25-liter Ozark Trail Hiker Pack sold at Walmart, which is cooperating with the investigation. The suspect’s gun holster, worn between his legs, is described as a “universal fit” holster, ill-suited for a larger weapon. Retired LAPD Captain Paul Vernon, who oversaw homicide investigations, suggested that the style of carry might be recognizable to individuals familiar with gun ranges, and investigators are pursuing this angle. Identifying the suspect’s specific clothing, weapon, and holster could potentially trigger a memory and generate a crucial tip.
The Pima County Sheriff’s Department addressed reports of video footage showing the suspect at Guthrie’s door prior to the abduction, stating the images were inconclusive. “We are aware that doorbell images released earlier in the investigation depict a suspect in different stages of attire, including with and without a backpack,” the department stated. “There is no date or time stamp associated with these images. Any suggestion that the photographs were taken on different days is purely speculative.”
Cellphone Pinging: Investigators, particularly those with the FBI’s technical units, are utilizing geo-fencing to identify cellphone users in the vicinity of Guthrie’s home. They are attempting to isolate phones that are not typically present in the area. Even if the kidnapper used a disposable “burner” phone, investigators aim to identify it and trace its movements. A similar tactic was used in a Los Angeles County jewelry heist last year, where a burner phone linked to a traffic accident was connected to the crime scene and other offenses.
Camera Data: The investigation is also focused on retrieving data from cameras surrounding Guthrie’s home. Detectives have requested residents of the Catalina Foothills neighborhood to submit any suspicious behavior captured on security cameras throughout the month preceding the abduction, initially focusing on footage from January 11th. Authorities have not confirmed whether they believe the perpetrator surveilled the home before the kidnapping, but law enforcement experts note that surveillance footage often captures potential burglars or home invaders in the weeks leading up to a crime.
