Abkhazia’s Vice President Takes Office Amid Political Crisis and Protests Following President’s Resignation
On November 19, Abkhazia’s Vice President Badra Gunba assumed the role of acting head of state after the parliament accepted President Aslan Bzhaniya’s resignation. Early elections for a new president, in which Bzhaniya intends to run again, must occur within three months, according to Dmitry Marshan, head of the Abkhaz Central Election Commission.
Bzhaniya resigned amid rising tensions related to a forthcoming parliamentary approval of a deal with Russia regarding real estate acquisition rights in Abkhazia. He led Abkhazia since 2020 and resigned after negotiations between the government and opposition, following protests and the occupation of government buildings in the capital, Sukhum.
Before November 17, the opposition demanded Bzhaniya’s resignation, threatening to form a temporary government if their request was not met. Eventually, the protesters agreed for Vice President Gunba to serve as president, leading to the withdrawal of demonstrators from government buildings.
The current crisis began after five opposition activists were arrested, opposing the contentious investment deal signed last month in Moscow between Abkhaz Economy Minister Kristina Ozgan and Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov. Ozgan signed the agreement without parliamentary approval, despite significant opposition criticism.
If ratified by parliament, the agreement would provide privileges to Russian investors in Abkhazia, including an eight-year exemption from taxes and duties. Opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba commented that the government aimed to force the agreement through parliament.
Ardzinba is now set to be nominated for the presidency by five organizations in Abkhazia. Following the news of the arrests, hundreds of protesters gathered outside the Abkhaz security forces headquarters in Sukhum, demanding the activists’ release.
Protests escalated, leading to the blockage of key bridges in Sukhum, prompting President Bzhaniya to call an emergency security council meeting. The detainees were released on the evening of November 12, and the judicial proceedings against them were suspended.
Despite this, the crisis persists. Over the past two years, Bzhaniya has actively lobbied for a “housing law” that would allow Russian citizens to buy property in Abkhazia, which currently prohibits foreign ownership of residential real estate.
Abkhazia’s favorable climate and scenic beauty make it a popular destination for Russians, especially since their options for seaside resorts narrowed after the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In 2023, about 1.4 million Russian tourists visited Abkhazia, a region with a population of around 240,000.
What are the main factors contributing to the political crisis in Abkhazia?
An Interview with Political Analyst Dr. Elvira Dzhigkaeva on Abkhazia’s Political Crisis
Date: November 20, 2023
Interviewer: Alexei Petrov
Alexei Petrov: Thank you for joining us, Dr. Dzhigkaeva. With the recent resignation of President Aslan Bzhaniya and the subsequent assumption of leadership by Vice President Badra Gunba, what does this mean for Abkhazia’s political landscape moving forward?
Dr. Elvira Dzhigkaeva: Thank you for having me. Bzhaniya’s resignation indicates a significant shift in Abkhazia’s political dynamics, largely influenced by the ongoing public discontent. His administration faced immense pressure, culminating not only from opposition demands but also from increasingly assertive protests. With Gunba stepping in as acting president, we may see a brief period of stability. However, the real test will come in the upcoming elections and how the relationship between the government and the opposition evolves.
Alexei Petrov: You mentioned public discontent. This has been notably linked to the controversial deal with Russia concerning real estate acquisition rights. Can you elaborate on the implications of this agreement for both the local population and Russian investors?
Dr. Elvira Dzhigkaeva: Certainly. The proposed deal, which offers Russian investors tax breaks for eight years, raises serious concerns among the Abkhaz population. Many locals fear that this could lead to significant Russian influence over land ownership, with a potential influx of Russian citizens changing the demographic and socio-economic landscape. Given Abkhazia’s history and the delicate balance of power, this is particularly sensitive. The deal could further complicate an already fraught relationship between pro-Russian factions and local interests.
Alexei Petrov: The reaction from the opposition and the protests that followed indicate a strong sentiment against such agreements. Who are the key players in this opposition movement?
Dr. Elvira Dzhigkaeva: The opposition is coalescing around figures like Adgur Ardzinba, who has gained traction as the front-runner for the presidency following Bzhaniya. Ardzinba’s coalition represents a broader public discontent with the administration’s approach to governance and foreign relations, particularly the closeness to Moscow. The opposition is also capitalizing on the arrest of activists, portraying the government as repressive and out of touch. The unity among these factions could reshape the political landscape depending on how effectively they organize for the upcoming elections.
Alexei Petrov: Given that Bzhaniya has indicated his intent to run again, how do you see his potential candidacy affecting the elections amidst this current crisis?
Dr. Elvira Dzhigkaeva: Bzhaniya’s decision to run again suggests a willingness to confront the challenges head-on. However, his administration has suffered considerable reputational damage due to the protests and the contentious real estate deal. Voter sentiment may lean toward candidates who promise greater independence from Russian influences and a more transparent, equitable governance model. The economic appeal of Russian investment can’t be dismissed entirely, but with the right messaging, the opposition could capitalize on Bzhaniya’s vulnerabilities during the electoral campaign.
Alexei Petrov: what does the future hold for Abkhazia in terms of its relationship with Russia and internal political stability?
Dr. Elvira Dzhigkaeva: The future is uncertain. While Russia is likely to continue pushing for policies that favor its interests, any attempts to impose agreement without the electorate’s support will further entrench divisions. The instability can either lead to a more assertive push for autonomy and local governance or, conversely, deepen dependency on Russian political and economic structures. The coming months will be critical as Abkhazia navigates this crossroads and its citizens grapple with their identity and sovereignty.
Alexei Petrov: Thank you, Dr. Dzhigkaeva, for your insights. It’s clear that Abkhazia is at a pivotal moment, and we will be watching closely to see how the situation unfolds.
Dr. Elvira Dzhigkaeva: Thank you, Alexei. It’s a pleasure to discuss such an important issue.
Since Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia, it has continuously pushed for changes to local laws to enable foreign ownership of property and land, raising fears among Abkhazians of being overwhelmed by Russian presence.
On November 20, Valery Bghbanba, 71, became the acting Prime Minister. Bghbanba has served as acting president twice during previous political crises. The ongoing crisis poses a new challenge for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Bzhaniya, the third consecutive Abkhaz leader removed from power since 2008, struggled to balance Russian interests with local opposition. Despite protests being against the close ties with Russia, demonstrators accused Bzhaniya of exploiting these connections for personal gain.
Most of Abkhazia broke away from Georgia after the 1993 conflicts, losing further territory after the brief war with Russia in 2008. Early elections are required by February 19 of the upcoming year.
Analysts believe that while the current crisis may not favor Moscow, it is unlikely to escalate into a broader conflict or lead to a Russian military intervention. Observers in Georgia are watching the events closely, particularly after a Russian-aligned party won recent parliamentary elections.
Earlier this year, the Abkhaz government had to withdraw a similar law due to rising opposition pressure. In late December, Abkhazia ratified a deal transferring a villa in the coastal town of Pitsunda to the Russian Federal Protection Service, triggering local protests over land transfer concerns.
Despite opposition pressures, the Abkhaz parliament ratified the agreement with 26 votes in favor. The symbolic annual payment for the transaction is just one ruble, and the arrangement has roots dating to 1995, having been secretly extended earlier in 2022.
Since the 2008 war with Georgia, Russia maintains a permanent military base in Abkhazia. Georgia’s pro-Western President Salome Zourabichvili condemned the land transfer as a form of annexation. The opposition group “Aruaa” continues to demand the withdrawal of the investment agreement with Russia.