Airline Fares to Rise: Fuel Costs & Middle East Conflict Impact Flights

Airline Fares Surge as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Fuel Supplies

Global airline ticket prices are climbing rapidly as the conflict in the Middle East continues to drive up jet fuel costs and disrupt key flight routes. Airlines across Asia and Europe have already begun implementing fare increases, adding fuel surcharges, and adjusting schedules in response to the volatile situation, with further increases anticipated if the crisis persists.

The price of jet fuel has more than doubled in recent weeks, soaring from around $85 to $90 per barrel before the recent escalation of hostilities to between $150 and $200 per barrel. This dramatic spike is largely attributed to disruptions in shipping through vital oil export routes in the Middle East, impacting global travel and raising fears of a significant downturn in the industry.

Several major carriers, including Australia’s Qantas Airways, Scandinavia’s SAS, and Air New Zealand, announced fare hikes on March 10, 2026, directly citing the increased cost of fuel. Air New Zealand suspended its financial outlook for 2026 due to the uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s duration and impact. SAS stated that the increases were “necessary to maintain stable and reliable operations,” while implementing a “temporary price adjustment.”

While some airlines, such as Lufthansa and Ryanair, have oil hedging strategies in place – securing a portion of their fuel supplies at fixed prices – the effectiveness of these hedges is limited. Finnair, which had hedged over 80% of its first-quarter fuel purchases, cautioned that even fuel availability could become a concern if the conflict continues to escalate. “A prolonged crisis could affect not only the price of fuel but also its availability, at least temporarily,” a Finnair spokesperson said.

The disruption is forcing airlines to re-evaluate routes. Long-haul carriers like Air France-KLM and Lufthansa are adding flights via Asia to circumvent airspace closures and reduced operations at Gulf hubs. British Airways has announced direct flights to Melbourne, Australia, extending routes through Kuala Lumpur, and adding services to Caribbean destinations to avoid congested Middle Eastern airspace. This shift could potentially benefit European carriers, allowing them to regain market share previously ceded to airlines and airports in the Gulf region.

However, the impact isn’t limited to long-haul flights. Oxford Economics warns that tourism to Europe could be negatively affected, with nearly 28 million outbound trips from the Middle East potentially at risk. Turkey, France, and the UK are identified as particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on Middle Eastern visitors. Conversely, Mediterranean destinations like Spain, Portugal, and Greece could see an increase in tourism as travelers seek alternative locations.

Airlines are also lobbying for government support, urging European leaders to cut green taxes. A collective statement from Airlines for Europe (A4E), representing 16 airline groups, argued that they are “losing competitive ground” to airlines operating outside the EU regulatory framework. They warned that without support, airlines may be forced to cut routes.

The industry is also pushing back against upcoming EU mandates for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), specifically a requirement for a 6% blend of SAF, including 0.7% eSAF (synthetic fuel), by 2030. Airlines are calling for a postponement of the eSAF mandate until the fuel is more readily available. However, the EU’s transport commissioner has indicated that the industry needs to invest in developing these fuels, rather than seeking to delay the targets. Transport & Environment criticized the airlines’ stance, arguing that their uncertainty is hindering the scale-up of SAF production.

Passengers are being advised to book flights as early as possible to secure the best available fares. While airlines are attempting to absorb some of the increased costs through hedging and route adjustments, the sustained surge in fuel prices is likely to translate into higher ticket prices for consumers in the coming months. The situation remains fluid, and the duration and intensity of the conflict will be key determinants of the long-term impact on the airline industry and global travel.