Alabama Weather: Potential Tornadoes & Severe Storms – Feb 13, 2026 Update

Alabama residents are bracing for a period of unsettled weather, with a line of showers and thunderstorms expected to sweep across the state on Sunday, February 15th. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, the potential for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes exists, particularly in areas south of Interstate 20, according to the Alabama Emergency Management Agency (EMA).

Jim Stefkovich, a meteorologist with the EMA, stated that the system will enter the western portions of the state after sunrise on Sunday, moving eastward throughout the day and exiting by 6 pm local time. Following the passage of the main line of storms, the possibility of re-development during the afternoon remains, potentially bringing hail to some areas.

The forecast suggests a “typical wintertime high shear, low instability event,” meaning conditions are favorable for rotating storms, but lack the broader atmospheric energy needed for widespread severe weather. However, officials caution that an increase in instability could lead to a greater number of severe storms, though the likelihood of this occurring remains low.

The EMA anticipates total rainfall amounts ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 inches across the state. This comes after a period of icy conditions earlier in the year. In late January, flurries and snow showers impacted the northern half of Alabama, with accumulations of up to ¼ inch reported near and north of the Tennessee River, exacerbating already icy roadway conditions. January 26th saw particularly hazardous travel conditions, as noted by the EMA.

The current system differs from the January cold snap, which brought freezing temperatures and icy roads. While the potential for severe weather exists on Sunday, the primary concern is localized damage from strong winds and possible tornadoes, rather than widespread disruption from ice accumulation. The I-20 corridor is expected to experience initial snowfall transitioning to mixed precipitation, including the possibility of freezing rain around midday. Areas further north are forecast to receive primarily snow, potentially mixed with rain if temperatures rise above freezing.

The EMA has advised residents to monitor weather updates and be prepared for potential power outages and travel disruptions. The agency emphasized that impacts to roadways could begin almost immediately once the winter precipitation starts, due to the already cold pavement temperatures. The bulk of the precipitation is expected to move out of the state by midnight on Saturday, February 14th, but temperatures will drop below freezing across much of the state early Saturday morning, potentially leading to the formation of ice on roadways, particularly in the southern half of the state, with continuing impacts further north.

This weather event follows a broader pattern of fluctuating temperatures and precipitation across the southeastern United States. The region has experienced a relatively mild winter but has been punctuated by periods of intense cold and winter storms. The EMA’s ongoing monitoring and public alerts are crucial for mitigating the risks associated with these unpredictable weather patterns.

The potential for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes near and south of I-20 highlights the importance of preparedness. Residents in these areas should secure loose outdoor objects, ensure they have a reliable source of information and be prepared to take shelter if a warning is issued. While the forecast does not indicate a widespread severe weather outbreak, the possibility of localized impacts necessitates caution and vigilance.

The EMA’s Jim Stefkovich noted the event is characterized by high shear, which refers to changes in wind speed and direction with height, a key ingredient for rotating thunderstorms. However, the lack of significant instability – the amount of energy available in the atmosphere – limits the potential for widespread severe weather. The interplay between these two factors will determine the ultimate severity of the storms.

The forecast also indicates that snowfall totals will increase significantly north of I-20, while freezing rain amounts are expected to remain below 0.01 inch. This distinction is important, as freezing rain poses a greater threat to infrastructure and travel due to its ability to create a coating of ice on surfaces. The EMA continues to emphasize the importance of safe travel practices during winter weather events, advising drivers to slow down, increase following distance, and be aware of potential icy conditions.

Looking ahead, the EMA forecasts a return to warmer and wetter conditions next week, following the passage of Sunday’s storm system. This transition will bring a welcome change for many residents, but also raises the potential for flooding and other weather-related hazards. The agency will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as needed.