Alphabet, Google’s parent company, received an upgrade from Wells Fargo on Monday, , signaling increased confidence in its ability to capitalize on the burgeoning artificial intelligence landscape. The firm raised its rating to Overweight from Equal Weight, alongside a price target increase from $354 to $387, representing a potential upside of over 22% from Friday’s closing price.
The upgrade comes despite a recent period of stagnation for Alphabet’s stock, mirroring the performance of other companies within the “Magnificent Seven” group of large-cap tech stocks. While Alphabet shares have surged 75% over the past 12 months, significantly outpacing the S&P 500’s 14% gain, they have experienced a 4% decline in the last month and remain relatively unchanged year-to-date.
Three Pillars of AI Dominance
Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski cited three key characteristics that position Alphabet for success in the AI arena: its access to vast amounts of customer data, its extensive distribution network, and its rapidly expanding compute capacity. “We believe GOOGL has all the pieces necessary to be an AI winner, with an industry-leading capacity position to support internal efforts (Search, Gemini) and monetize externally through GCP, broad distribution network, and vast consumer data,” Gawrelski wrote in a research note.
The analyst’s assessment highlights a growing industry understanding that compute capacity – the raw processing power needed to train and run AI models – is becoming a critical bottleneck. Gawrelski points to Alphabet’s ambitious plans to increase its artificial intelligence compute capacity from 15 gigawatts at the end of last year to 35 gigawatts by . This expansion is seen as a strategic advantage, allowing Google to not only power its own AI initiatives, such as its Gemini model and improvements to its core Search product, but also to offer AI services to external clients through Google Cloud Platform (GCP).
Compute Capacity as a Competitive Advantage
The increasing importance of compute capacity is reshaping the competitive dynamics within the AI industry. Gawrelski suggests that “hyperscaler ambitions are bounded by compute capacity,” meaning that a company’s ability to scale its AI offerings is directly limited by its access to sufficient processing power. As this constraint persists, Google is expected to gain a competitive edge as it widens its capacity leadership over its peers.
This isn’t simply about having more servers; it’s about efficient utilization and specialized hardware. While the details of Alphabet’s compute infrastructure aren’t fully public, the company has been investing heavily in custom-designed Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), which are specifically optimized for machine learning workloads. These TPUs offer significant performance and efficiency advantages over general-purpose CPUs and GPUs, allowing Google to extract more value from its compute investments.
Gemini and the Revenue Potential
Beyond compute capacity, the monetization of its Gemini AI model is expected to be a significant driver of Alphabet’s stock performance. Gawrelski projects that Gemini’s average recurring revenue will triple from $4 billion at the end of last year to $12 billion by the end of . This growth will be fueled by increased adoption of Gemini across Google’s various products and services, as well as through direct sales to enterprise customers.
Gemini, a multimodal AI model, is capable of processing and generating text, images, audio, and video. This versatility makes it a powerful tool for a wide range of applications, from content creation and customer service to data analysis and scientific research. Google is actively integrating Gemini into its existing products, such as Search, Workspace (Gmail, Docs, Sheets), and Cloud, to enhance their functionality and provide users with more intelligent and personalized experiences.
Wall Street Consensus
The Wells Fargo upgrade aligns with the broader positive sentiment surrounding Alphabet on Wall Street. According to data from LSEG, 52 out of 61 analysts covering the tech giant currently rate it a buy or strong buy. The average price target among these analysts indicates an upside of nearly 14% from current levels.
However, it’s important to note that analyst ratings and price targets are not guarantees of future performance. The AI landscape is rapidly evolving, and Alphabet faces intense competition from other tech giants, including Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. The company’s success will depend on its ability to continue innovating, effectively monetize its AI technologies, and navigate the complex regulatory environment surrounding artificial intelligence.
Alphabet’s stock experienced a slight increase in premarket trading following the Wells Fargo upgrade, suggesting that investors are responding positively to the news. The coming months will be crucial for Alphabet as it seeks to solidify its position as a leader in the AI revolution and deliver on the expectations of Wall Street analysts and investors alike.
