Analysis of the Ongoing War in Ukraine: 1000 Days of Conflict and Potential Peace Plans
Focus on Ukraine: The Ongoing War
On November 19, it marked 1,000 days since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This program examines the latest developments in the conflict.
Jānis Slaidiņš, a major in the National Guard, and Elīna Vrobļevska, a researcher at the Eastern Europe Policy Research Center and a lecturer at Rīga Stradiņš University, provide insights into the situation. We also hear from Dmitro Levus, a political scientist and director of the “Ukrainian Meridian” social research center.
Stalemate in Territorial Changes
Over the past thousand days, the front lines have not changed significantly. Following a withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnipro River near Kherson in early 2022, the frontline has moved little. The area controlled by both sides has remained nearly the same since early 2023.
Recently, however, Russia has made small territorial gains in Ukraine. Analysts note that Ukrainian counteroffensives, such as one against Russia’s Kursk region in August, had limited impact on this slow Russian advance. By now, Russia controls approximately 2,000 square kilometers more of Ukraine than at the start of the year, with recent gains in just the past few weeks. This has led some media outlets to claim that Ukrainian forces are retreating.
The most intense Russian pressure remains in the Donetsk region and the Kursk region, where Russian forces are attempting to oust entrenched Ukrainian troops.
In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin made specific territorial claims, stating that Russia aims to fully annex Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. While Russia holds almost all of Luhansk, about a third of Donetsk remains under Ukrainian control, as well as significant portions of Zaporizhzhia and Herson, including both regional capitals. It is unclear how much military strength and equipment would be needed for Russia to achieve its stated goals.
Trump’s Peace Plan
Western leaders agree that Ukraine must win this war, providing various support. However, many analysts believe that some countries do not genuinely wish for a Ukrainian victory but rather wish to prevent Ukraine’s total defeat. This has led to persistent bloodshed and hardship.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential elections approach, Donald Trump has stated that his primary goal is to end the war. The U.S. has the potential to influence the situation. Speculation arises regarding a potential U.S. offer for both sides to negotiate ceasefire terms, threatening to cut aid to Ukraine or promising unprecedented assistance if they comply.
This possible scenario evokes mixed feelings across Europe. A ceasefire could force Ukraine to concede territory to Russia, leading to domestic unrest in Ukraine. Additionally, a pause would allow Russia to regroup, posing future security risks for Europe. Thus, many European countries remain committed to ensuring Ukraine’s victory.
On November 17, President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use long-range missiles to target Russian military positions deeper in Russian territory. However, analysts caution that Western support has often arrived too late. This latest U.S. decision may not significantly alter the ongoing conflict, especially with Trump expected to take office soon and initiate his policies before the official inauguration.