ANZ Predicts Three NZ Interest Rate Hikes in Late 2026

Economists at ANZ have projected three consecutive interest rate hikes for New Zealand in the second half of 2026, signaling a shift toward a tighter monetary policy to combat rising inflation.

According to reporting from Interest.co.nz on April 13, 2026, ANZ analysts anticipate +25 basis point increases in July, September, and October. These projected moves would bring the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.0%.

Monetary Policy and Inflation Risks

The shift in outlook from ANZ is driven by concerns that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may become uncomfortable with an OCR that remains in stimulatory territory while inflation increases.

Essentially, we see the RBNZ becoming too uncomfortable with an OCR in stimulatory territory as inflation inevitably rises, concluding the risks of going too late outweigh the risks of hiking too soon.

ANZ Economists

While ANZ predicts a rise to 3.0%, financial markets hold a more aggressive outlook, with expectations that the OCR could reach 4.0% by December 2027. Other major banking institutions, including ASB, BNZ, and Westpac, are noted to have already identified these trends ahead of ANZ.

Consumer Spending and Economic Pressures

Westpac is preparing to release data on customer card transactions, which is expected to provide further insight into the current state of retail spending. Initial observations suggest a complex environment where mounting cost-of-living pressures are beginning to restrict spending.

Despite these pressures, retail spending remains higher than the levels recorded during the same period in the previous year. However, this increase is attributed largely to significantly higher fuel prices rather than an increase in the volume of goods purchased.

The service sector is also reported to be struggling as part of the broader economic climate reported on April 13, 2026.

Banking and Interest Rate Status

In the immediate term, there were no changes to report for retail mortgage or term deposit rates on April 13, 2026.

This stability follows a period of volatility; for instance, on March 23, 2026, reports indicated further retail rate rises and a decline in home loan affordability.

Other financial market indicators on April 13, 2026, showed that swaps rose, the NZX fell, and the New Zealand dollar remained hovering.