Arab States Spearhead Diplomacy to Avert Wider Israel-Iran War

​ Updated June ⁤18, 2025
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With⁢ significant stakes in regional⁢ stability, Arab nations are taking a leading ⁤role in advocating for a diplomatic resolution to⁤ the‌ ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. These countries are actively engaged in ‍eleventh-hour ‌discussions aimed at preventing a broader war.

Gulf Arab states,including Oman and Qatar,along with Jordan,are currently involved⁤ in efforts to de-escalate‍ the situation. Oman and‌ Qatar are scheduled to host talks ⁣this week between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and the Iranian foreign minister, focusing ⁢on achieving a ceasefire and a nuclear agreement.

A primary concern for these Arab nations is⁢ the potential for U.S. involvement in the conflict. Many of these countries host U.S. military bases, which could become targets if the United States were to⁤ join Israel’s offensive, placing them directly in the crossfire.

The recent rise of a pro-Arab Middle⁤ East alignment,characterized ⁢by cooperation,economic prosperity,and moderation,is also at risk.This alignment, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, could unravel if Iran activates‌ its proxy​ militias.

As Arab states strive to avoid being drawn into a conflict ⁢they have long sought to prevent, their ability to influence President Donald Trump toward dialog may determine the region’s future.

Bader al-Saif, assistant professor at Kuwait University and fellow ‍at chatham House, notes that for Gulf⁤ Arab states, located across the Persian Gulf from Iran, the war “is our worst nightmare ​come⁣ into fruition. ⁢Symbolically and geographically, we are stuck between the two adversaries. The ​continuation of this can only mean regional spillover.”

Despite past competition with Iran for regional influence, Arab states are ⁣not celebrating‍ the conflict⁣ or⁣ hoping for the Iranian‍ regime’s downfall. Their‍ primary concern is the ‍destabilization of the region.

led by Saudi‌ Arabia and the United ⁢Arab Emirates, these nations are leveraging their‌ “axis of cooperation” to ⁢present a united front, urging the Trump governance to avoid direct involvement in Israel’s‌ offensive ⁣and to push for ‌an immediate ceasefire.

According to a Gulf diplomat familiar with the talks, ⁣the message‌ from Arab states to Washington is clear: “We all⁣ want a peaceful, quiet, and moderate Middle East driven by business and economic interests. This will all be lost if Israel and Iran continue the war. This conflict will undo all our painstaking progress towards stability, progress, and peace.”

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently emphasized to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian “the kingdom’s condemnation and denunciation of [Israeli] attacks,‍ which⁢ undermine the sovereignty and security of the Islamic Republic of iran” and which ⁤”disrupted dialogue aimed at resolving ‌the crisis.”

Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman are acting as intermediaries between Tehran and Washington, conveying messages from Tehran to⁢ Washington in an effort to secure a ceasefire.

President ‌Trump has indicated he may send both Mr. Witkoff and Vice President⁢ JD Vance to the proposed meeting between ⁣U.S. and iranian officials.

Saudi Arabia is reportedly utilizing its close ties with President Trump and ‍a shared business-first approach to encourage the White House to de-escalate the⁣ conflict.

Aziz Alghashian, a ‌Saudi ⁢researcher and fellow at the Gulf International Forum, believes that​ “not only the good relationship, but the natural chemistry that both Trump and⁤ MBS have, ⁢is ‌and can be leveraged.” He emphasizes that all agree the war “is‍ going to hinder these investments that will boost the American economy.”

So​ far,Arab diplomacy has resulted in‌ pledges ⁣from the U.S. and Israel not to directly involve Arab states in the war.

The ⁣Israeli air force has reportedly refrained from using Gulf Arab and Jordanian airspace to reach Iran,and there is a “quiet understanding” that the U.S. ‍will not appear to be using its Middle East⁤ bases to support the Israeli offensive.

The ⁤White House has assured Arab ​states that it will not get involved in ‌the offensive ⁤unless Americans are attacked,⁣ according to Axios.

U.S. Bases and Potential Targets

The presence ‌of U.S. military bases in Bahrain,Kuwait,Qatar,and Jordan is ‍a‍ significant factor that could draw Gulf countries into the ⁢conflict,as these bases ​may ‌become targets for Iran or its⁤ proxies in Yemen and Iraq.

Mr. Saif warns that “if the U.S. gets involved, U.S. targets in the Gulf are open to Iranian retaliation.”

Iran’s intentions were made clear prior to the ⁣outbreak of ⁢the war, with Iranian Defense minister Aziz Nasirzadeh⁢ warning that “if a conflict is imposed on us … all U.S. bases ​are within our⁤ reach and we will boldly target ⁤them in host countries.”

Concerns are growing in the Gulf‌ that if Israel escalates its ‍targeting of Iranian gas facilities, Tehran and its proxies may retaliate​ by targeting Gulf oil and gas facilities.

The 2019 ⁣Abqaiq-Khurais attack, in which Iran-backed Houthi‌ drones took 50% of Saudi Arabia’s oil production offline, remains fresh ‌in their ‌minds.

The war has also underscored the geographic⁣ vulnerability of several Arab states in the Levant, which lie directly beneath⁤ the flight paths of Iranian missiles and⁣ drones.

Jordan, Lebanon, and ‍Syria are experiencing salvos of‍ ballistic missiles headed to Israel flying overhead every few hours.

Jordan has publicly committed to intercepting any missiles or drones flying over its airspace to protect its “sovereignty.” The Jordanian air force is actively intercepting Iranian​ missiles ​on a nightly ⁢basis.

“Jordan has not and will not allow any violation of its⁤ airspace,” stated government⁢ spokesperson Mohammed al-Momani, emphasizing that “the Kingdom will ​not be a battleground ​for any conflict.”

Despite its military’s defensive success, Jordanian diplomacy with Iran and Israel has yielded limited ⁢results, even⁤ as the conflict plunges the kingdom into a state of wartime emergency.

Amer Sabaileh, a Jordanian geopolitical analyst, observes‌ that “you cannot prevent ⁢Iranians from‌ using your airspace and cannot ask israel not to attack Iran. This is a curse of geography. You are in the middle of a war, but you are not part of it. It is indeed⁢ a difficult position.”

Economic Repercussions

Even if Arab states ⁣avoid direct missile strikes, the conflict is expected to ‌negatively impact their economies.

the ongoing Iranian missile launches have led 10 foreign airlines to suspend flights into and out​ of Jordan,⁣ significantly ⁤harming its tourism sector.

Another potential economic blow to the region is the threat by ​some Iranian officials to close the⁢ Strait of‌ Hormuz, a critical waterway for 20% ⁤of the world’s oil exports, particularly to China and India.

While wartime energy ‍shocks may provide a short-term⁢ benefit with rising oil prices, they would not offset the significant cost to Gulf ⁣states’​ efforts to diversify their economies away from oil, which depend on foreign investment and market stability.

Mr.⁤ Saif concludes that “Gulf states all agree that we don’t⁤ need war.It will⁤ scare away investors and will prevent us from our aspiring visions to grow both at home and beyond ‍our borders.”

What’s ⁢next

The coming weeks will be crucial in determining weather diplomatic⁣ efforts can ⁢successfully de-escalate the conflict and prevent a wider regional war.⁢ The involvement ‌of key players like the U.S., Iran, and Arab states will be pivotal in shaping the future of the ‌Middle ‌East.