Are We Getting into a New Period of Development? Insights on Curiosity Price Cuts and Market Dynamics

※ Korea Financial TV’s Success Funding Afternoon Inventory Market dwell program airs day by day at 2:00 p.m. ■ Curiosity Price Reduce One Month Away… The Period of Massive Development Has Arrived The battle on the KOSPI 2700 degree appears to be fairly intense. After final evening’s information that US employment had elevated by 800,000, the Nasdaq was very excited concerning the rate of interest reduce expectations, however that wasn’t sufficient for us. Chief? Initially, it could be a recruitment rip-off, however Goldman Sachs has warned about that previously. So, I feel it must be mentioned that they’re all already mirrored out there. Quite the opposite, there’s a constructive view, however that signifies that an overheating of employment can act as a consider growing costs. So I feel it may be interpreted in a constructive means, saying that the cash has are available usually. Would you say that is an expectation provided that the rate of interest reduce is just a month away? Did not rechargeable batteries, some robotic shares, video content material, IT platforms, software program and gaming shares present energy in the present day? The market is having a very chaotic morning and is coming into the afternoon. Let’s check out a number of the highlighted shares. First, in robots, there was some pleasure on the information that SPG would provide actuators for Samsung Electronics’ Boffit parts, and within the case of the M83 particularly, in the present day is the primary day of itemizing and the transaction quantity was 4 instances that of Samsung Electronics. Since we do not know the place the cash will go, it looks as if it’s specializing in the newly listed shares. Additionally, within the case of Yes24, it owns a stake in Entice, the company of FiftyFifty. However right here, Fifty Fifty confirmed energy with the information that it has signed an album distribution take care of Sony Leisure. The final time we noticed a formation like this was proper after the coronavirus outbreak. Is the energy of progress shares beginning now? Ought to I take a look at it like this? What do you assume? Our nation is a bit late now. Why within the case of small and medium-sized progress shares represented by the Russell 2000, has it been a month because the US rate of interest reduce grew to become considerably sure? From that time on, it began to bounce. That is undoubtedly the case. previous statistics, there are statistics displaying that the relative energy of the Russell 2000 is larger three months earlier than the rate of interest reduce. That’s the reason in our nation the Financial institution of Korea froze the rate of interest in the present day on this regard, however would not it have given some sign that it could decrease the rate of interest subsequent time? So aren’t these components resulting in a rebound in progress shares in the present day in our nation as properly? You’ll be able to see it. Nonetheless, in keeping with statistics, if the rate of interest have been to be lowered once more, from that time on, this is able to now not be attainable. So the market does not at all times make predictions based mostly on expectations? So, there are some shifting elements in our nation proper now, but when the rate of interest is reduce, there’s a chance that it’s going to not return from that time on, so I feel it’s needed to consider the restricted time and play the highest of the restricted vary. I wish to ask extra particularly, however as soon as the rate of interest reduce is applied, progress shares will be unable to go away. Below what circumstances does that occur? As a result of expectations are raised prematurely and are mirrored within the inventory value, if the rate of interest is definitely lowered, the supplies are uncovered. So for that purpose, you’ll be able to say that the circumstances the place the inventory value doesn’t rise when the rate of interest is reduce have been repeated prior to now. After that, it looks as if there have been circumstances the place important shoppers and others have proven energy. I should go and see, however when the rate of interest is definitely lowered, the state of affairs shall be completely different every time, however I feel it is going to be efficient whether it is targeted on the efficiency of the shares moderately than on these expectations once more. If these progress shares are displaying energy prior to now, what shares or sectors do you assume we should always significantly think about as shares that may profit from rate of interest cuts? Typically, when rates of interest are lowered, we will consider many issues, however we will additionally see development shares as beneficiaries of rate of interest cuts. It has been mentioned just lately that the PF issues will explode, however it isn’t occurring, proper? Ultimately, it appears to shuttle at a important level, but when the rate of interest is lowered, these issues could be simply overcome, so development shares corresponding to HDC and Hyundai Growth Firm are displaying fairly good costs. And when rates of interest are reduce, we predict that top dividend shares that pay plenty of dividends will in all probability see excellent costs, no matter whether or not they’re in Korea or america. One other factor could be for insurance coverage shares. As a result of this time Warren Buffett elevated the proportion of insurance coverage shares referred to as concubines. Does this imply that insurance coverage corporations would not have many long-term bonds issued throughout the period of excessive rates of interest? It is rather doubtless that this stuff create debt in periods of rate of interest cuts. Subsequently, insurance coverage shares, particularly within the case of Korea, are additionally concerned within the worth sector, so I feel you might also need to take note of insurance coverage shares. There could also be some individuals who assume that as a result of the whole lot is difficult, let’s solely take a look at massive tech. What do you concentrate on the technique of continuous to take a look at massive tech? However within the case of massive tech, we’re nonetheless speaking about it. I do not assume we will get out of the AI ​​bubble. NVIDIA’s earnings shall be launched subsequent week. The higher Nvidia performs, the more severe it’s for Massive Tech. As a result of NVIDIA’s good efficiency doesn’t imply that massive tech corporations have purchased GPUs at excessive costs, proper? In that case, when you purchase a GPU at a excessive value, you’ll inevitably be requested once more: “When will AI be capable to generate gross sales and web earnings right here?” So within the case of massive tech, it seems to be prefer it’s not simple. ■ 4 members of the Financial Coverage Committee say, “We have to think about a charge reduce inside 3 months.” Because the director mentioned earlier, 4 members of the Financial Coverage Committee want to think about a charge reduce inside 3 months. The governor of the Financial institution of Korea introduced in the present day that he talked about this. The Financial institution of Korea has now revised down each its progress and inflation forecasts. They mentioned they’d revise the timing of the rate of interest reduce taking into consideration actual property costs, however that does not imply that the burden of family debt and home costs has disappeared, proper? Do you continue to assume a charge reduce in October is feasible? If the FOMC cuts rates of interest in September, it is vitally doubtless that the Financial institution of Korea can even reduce rates of interest in October. As quickly because the rate of interest was frozen in the present day, there was a direct response from the Blue Home. The response was that it was slightly disappointing. They mentioned that exterior they reacted with disappointment, however inside they even used the expression that they have been seething. Subsequently, as soon as the FOMC lowers rates of interest, it is vitally doubtless that Korea will see its first rate of interest reduce beginning in October. On this state of affairs, the greenback has proven some energy in opposition to the gained, saying that america would decrease the rate of interest and that Korea wouldn’t be capable to decrease it due to housing costs, however as a result of the notion that the Financial institution of Korea would possibly decrease the speed, the rate of interest in the present day has grown, now it has grow to be very weak once more. The truth is, within the case of the reporter Jeong Ho-jin, he just lately purchased {dollars} as a result of the alternate charge fell. I instantly modified it. Was the selection of the reporter Jeong Ho-jin proper? Will the alternate charge recuperate once more sooner or later? I do not assume it is going to be simple. As a result of within the case of alternate charges, it is very important look not solely on the greenback and its achieve, however whether or not the sturdy greenback around the globe has peaked or not. However there may be an ETF that collects all of them based mostly on the alternate charges of rising international locations, and the actions of this ETF present barely completely different actions after 10 years. Not too long ago, ETFs linked to rising market currencies and rising market bonds additionally present rising international locations. What I imply by that is that the entire world appears to agree, to a sure extent, {that a} sturdy greenback has peaked. So, in fact, within the meantime the greenback could rise briefly, however I do not assume it is going to be simple for the greenback to observe the development of the previous and attain a stopping level. The speech of the BOJ governor tomorrow must be seen as crucial. I feel it would even be essential when it comes to alternate charges. The truth is, there appears to be an expectation that there shall be skepticism about elevating rates of interest moderately than mentioning an additional improve in rates of interest. Would not that assist to stabilize the alternate charge? After all. I went there tomorrow to not give a speech, however to scold you. As you understand, the Nationwide Meeting is just not in session in the mean time, however has been opened for a day. So, since that is the time to name them and ask questions on why they raised this value, I feel it’s unlikely that it’s going to shake the market on the spot once more. Presently, within the case of Japan, there’s a coverage being applied to draw particular person traders into the inventory market by offering tax advantages. In that state of affairs, it’s like being stabbed within the again swiftly. So, in fact, the lawmakers additionally really feel that they haven’t any selection however to behave, so it’s extremely unlikely that President Ueda will make such an announcement tomorrow to place some stress available on the market.

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