Are We Ready for a New Pandemic?
The Ongoing Threat of Pandemics: Are We Ready for the Next Outbreak?
Table of Contents
The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically altered the world. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially recognized the COVID-19 epidemic as a pandemic after more than 118,000 cases were reported across 114 countries. What followed included lockdowns, a global scramble for masks, the rapid development and deployment of tests and vaccines, and a gradual return to normalcy. As of 2025, COVID-19’s presence has seemingly diminished, with France integrating its monitoring into the broader surveillance of acute respiratory infections since 2023.
The WHO’s last official report indicated 7.1 million deaths worldwide; however, estimates suggest the actual figure could be three times higher.During the pandemic’s first two years alone, approximately 15 million excess deaths were recorded globally, highlighting the pandemic’s devastating impact.
The Certain Next Pandemic
Will there be another pandemic? Experts overwhelmingly agree: yes. The onyl uncertainty lies in the timing. A recent study by an American team estimated the annual probability of a new pandemic at 2.5 to 3.3%. This translates to a one in four chance of facing a pandemic within the next 10 years and a one in two chance within 25 years.
These elevated probabilities stem from increasing human encroachment on ecosystems, wich heightens the risk of zoonotic diseases—infectious diseases that jump from animals to humans. This is precisely what occurred with COVID-19, which emerged in Wuhan, China. Before infecting humans, SARS-CoV-2 was present in a wild animal, potentially a raccoon dog, according to a French study. Most so-called “emerging” diseases are, in fact, zoonoses.Examples include Ebola, SARS, MERS, Marburg virus, Nipah virus, Lassa fever, monkeypox, and avian flu.
Anticipating Disease X
alongside bacterial diseases like cholera and plague,these pathogens are among the 34 identified by the WHO as potential causes of a new pandemic.The WHO updated this list last year. However, the international organization tempers this concern, stating: “It is difficult to predict the specific pathogen that could be at the origin of the next international public health emergency or pandemic.” The WHO advocates for focusing on pathogen families rather than specific diseases.
Since 2018, the concept of “Disease X” has been introduced: a disease yet unknown but capable of triggering a severe pandemic.COVID-19 was likely the first example of Disease X. The next one could arise from a mutation of the H5N1 avian flu,a recurring concern among scientists,or from an entirely novel pathogen. The Institut Pasteur notes, “The most feared scenario would be a new virus transmitted via the respiratory route, against which humans have no immunity, associated with a high risk of severe forms, and transmissible before the onset of symptoms, or even by asymptomatic individuals.”
Strengthening International Cooperation
Unlike SARS, with which it shares a significant portion of its genome, COVID-19 could also be transmitted before the appearance of initial symptoms. This characteristic explains its pandemic potential,as most SARS patients were isolated before becoming contagious.
So, how can we better prepare for future pandemics? The first step is identifying new threats. Last year, the WHO launched a global framework to guide health authorities facing the emergence or resurgence of a pathogen. Diseases recognize no borders; therefore, international collaboration is crucial for prevention and response. In 2021, the WHO and Germany established a global center in Berlin for pandemic prevention, aimed at facilitating data sharing. An International Pathogen Surveillance Network (IPSN) has also been established.
The WHO is also developing a framework agreement to define best practices for pandemic response. “A major aspect of prevention, preparedness and response to pandemics is to ensure that countries work together according to clear rules,”
explained Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO Director-General. A key objective is to avoid the competitive scramble for vaccines and tests that occurred during the COVID-19 crisis.
Technological advancements also offer reasons for optimism. in the 1980s, it took two years to discover that HIV caused AIDS and another two years to sequence its genome. In contrast, less than two months after the first COVID-19 cases in January 2020, the complete sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 and diagnostic tests were available. By December of the same year, the first vaccines were ready.
Threats to Global Health Programs
However, a shadow looms over the international community’s efforts, particularly those led by the WHO, to prepare for the next pandemic. The return of Donald Trump has led to the United States announcing its withdrawal from the WHO, potentially depriving the organization of 20% of its budget. This move threatens numerous humanitarian aid programs and could drastically reduce U.S. funding for scientific research. These issues, rather than the next pandemic, may dominate the upcoming WHO General Assembly in Geneva in may.
The Ongoing Threat of Pandemics: Are We Ready for the Next Outbreak? - Q&A
Key Pandemic Concerns
Will there be another pandemic?
Yes, experts overwhelmingly agree that another pandemic is unavoidable. The only uncertainty lies in its timing. Studies estimate a significant probability of a new pandemic occurring within the next 10 to 25 years.
Related searches:
Is another pandemic coming without a doubt?
what is the likelihood of future pandemics?
When is the next pandemic expected?
What are the chances of another pandemic in the next 10 years?
A recent study estimates that there’s a one in four (25%) chance of facing a new pandemic within the next 10 years.
Related searches:
Pandemic probability next decade
Risk of pandemic in the near future
What is “Disease X,” and why is it a concern?
“Disease X” is a term introduced by the WHO in 2018 to represent a currently unknown pathogen that could trigger a severe pandemic. The concept is a proactive approach to recognize and prepare for potential threats that are yet to be identified. COVID-19 is considered by some to be the frist example of Disease X. The next one could arise from a mutation of something like the H5N1 avian flu, or a wholly novel pathogen.
Related searches:
What is the WHO’s Disease X?
Next potential pandemic diseases
Is COVID-19 considered Disease X?
Why are zoonotic diseases a major pandemic threat?
Zoonotic diseases, infectious diseases that jump from animals to humans, pose a significant threat because increasing human encroachment on ecosystems heightens the risk of these transmissions. COVID-19, which emerged in Wuhan, China, is a prime example of