Arsenal vs Tottenham: EPL Predictions, Odds & Best Bets for North London Derby

Arsenal will aim to halt a concerning dip in form when they travel to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for Saturday’s North London derby. While still leading the Premier League with 17 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, the Gunners have secured only two victories in their last seven league matches, most recently stumbling to a 2-2 draw against bottom-of-the-table Wolverhampton Wanderers on Wednesday. Kickoff is scheduled for February 22 at 9:30 AM ET.

Tottenham, currently 16th in the league with a record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses, are in a precarious position, just five points above the relegation zone. Their recent form is equally troubling, having failed to win a Premier League match in 2026, with a record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses. The arrival of new head coach Igor Tudor following the sacking of Thomas Frank presents a potential shift in fortunes, but the immediate challenge is a daunting one against their fierce rivals.

Arsenal are favored on the money line at -180, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with Tottenham listed as +500 underdogs and a draw priced at +330. The over/under for total match goals is set at 2.5 (Over -125, Under +100).

A Crucial Test for Arsenal’s Title Aspirations

Despite their recent wobble, Arsenal remain in a strong position to claim their first Premier League title in two decades. However, the dropped points against Wolverhampton have ignited concerns about a potential collapse, reminiscent of past seasons where late-season stumbles derailed their championship hopes. A victory against Tottenham would not only reignite their momentum but also deliver a significant psychological blow to their closest competitors.

The Gunners’ underlying statistics still paint a picture of a dominant team. Their superior xG (expected goals) numbers and solid defensive organization suggest that their recent struggles may be a temporary blip rather than a fundamental flaw. However, they will need to rediscover their clinical edge in front of goal and tighten up defensively to avoid further setbacks.

Tudor’s Baptism of Fire at Tottenham

Igor Tudor faces a monumental task in his first game in charge of Tottenham. Inheriting a team languishing in the lower reaches of the Premier League table, Tudor’s immediate priority will be to stabilize the ship and steer them clear of relegation trouble. His appointment represents a gamble by the club, given his relatively short tenure at previous clubs and lack of experience in the Premier League.

Tudor is known for his preference for a high-energy, aggressive pressing style, which could potentially inject some much-needed intensity into the Tottenham squad. However, implementing such a system effectively requires time and buy-in from the players, and it remains to be seen whether they will be able to adapt quickly enough to make a significant impact in the short term. The new coach favors a 3-4-2-1 formation, a system that proved problematic for Spurs under previous manager Thomas Frank.

Head-to-Head History Favors Arsenal

The historical record heavily favors Arsenal in this North London derby. The Gunners have won four consecutive matches against Tottenham, including a convincing 4-1 victory in their most recent encounter at the Emirates Stadium. In the past 10 head-to-head games, Arsenal have emerged victorious eight times, with one Tottenham win and one draw. This dominant record will undoubtedly give them a psychological advantage heading into Saturday’s clash.

Tottenham’s struggles against Arsenal are particularly pronounced when the Gunners deploy a back three. Arsenal have an unblemished record against teams utilizing a three-defender system this season, with 18 wins and five draws from 23 matches, scoring 43 goals and conceding only 16. Frank previously experimented with a back three, often reverting to a back four when the system faltered, a pattern Arsenal exploited in their previous meeting.

Key Matchups and Tactical Considerations

The midfield battle will be crucial in determining the outcome of this derby. Arsenal’s control of possession and ability to dictate the tempo will be key to unlocking the Tottenham defense. Tottenham will need to disrupt Arsenal’s rhythm and exploit any vulnerabilities in their defensive setup. The absence of Tottenham captain Cristian Romero due to suspension is a significant blow, leaving a void in their backline.

Arsenal’s attack, led by Bukayo Saka and Piero Hincapie, will pose a constant threat to the Tottenham defense. Saka, who scored in Arsenal’s recent draw with Wolverhampton, will be looking to add to his tally. Tottenham will need to be at their best defensively to contain Arsenal’s potent attacking force.

Expert Prediction: Arsenal to Cover the Asian Handicap

SportsLine expert Martin Green is backing Arsenal to cover the -1 Asian handicap (-105). This bet requires Arsenal to win by two or more goals, with the stake returned if they win by one goal. Green believes that Arsenal’s superior form, stronger underlying statistics, and excellent head-to-head record make them well-equipped to overcome a struggling Tottenham side adjusting to new leadership. He also recommends a bet on both teams to score (-110), anticipating a competitive match with goals at both ends.

Green notes that Tottenham are often described as “Dr. Tottenham,” a team prone to losing to struggling opponents and inadvertently aiding their rivals. He believes that a visit to Tottenham could be just what Arsenal need to reignite their title challenge. While acknowledging the potential for a new manager bounce under Tudor, Green ultimately favors Arsenal to secure a crucial victory in the North London derby.