Asian Carriers Willing to Take Risks in Hormuz, Europe to Face Severe Consequences

Asian shipping companies are preparing to resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz ahead of Western firms, citing higher risk tolerance and the ability to pay potential tolls imposed by Iran, according to industry executives speaking at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne on April 22, 2026.

Hundreds of tankers and other vessels have remained stranded in the Middle East Gulf since late February 2026, unable to pass through the strait due to heightened tensions between Iran and the United States, disrupting global oil and liquefied gas supplies in what officials describe as the largest-ever energy supply disruption.

Some ships managed to exit the Gulf last weekend, but Iran halted the movement by firing warning shots and instructing vessels to return, with at least three container ships reportedly hit by gunfire in the strait on Wednesday, April 22, 2026.

Larry Johnson, global head of freight at Mercuria, noted that while safety concerns persist for companies unwilling to comply with U.S. Sanctions, government-to-government communication could enable safe passage for certain fleets.

“For companies that are happy not to comply with OFAC sanctions, the safety part is still there. But, if that has been resolved by government to government communication, can the Indian navy send a convoy through, can a Chinese convoy go through? Yeah, probably so,” Johnson said, referring to the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.

He added that vessels which have successfully transited the strait recently have largely been government-owned ships benefiting from direct diplomatic channels with Iran or naval escorts — advantages not available to private merchant traders.

Peter Weernink, CEO of SwissMarine, predicted that in the coming weeks, ships from India, Iraq, and China are more likely to resume crossings, while Western firms complying with sanctions will continue to face barriers.

“Certain parts of the world will be able to pass through and the odds are that in the next few weeks you’re going to see more of that, and we won’t be able to,” Weernink said, listing Indian, Iraqi, and Chinese vessels as those expected to lead the return to transit.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical global chokepoint, with an estimated 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily in 2024 — approximately 20 percent of worldwide petroleum liquids — making any disruption a significant threat to global energy markets.

War risk clauses in shipping contracts, updated by BIMCO in April 2025, now include clearer obligations for insurance payments and enhanced calculations for additional freight charges related to re-routing, reflecting the increased commercial complexity of operating in the region.