Asteroid 2024 YR4: Moon Impact in 2032 Could Create Visible Flash & Meteor Showers

A building-sized asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, is on a trajectory that gives it a 4.3% chance of impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032. While the probability of an Earth impact has been ruled out, a lunar collision is still possible and, according to new research, could produce a spectacular display visible from our planet – a bright flash, potential meteor showers, and a lingering infrared glow.

The asteroid was initially discovered in December 2024 and initially raised concerns about a potential Earth impact, with early estimates suggesting a risk of nearly 3%. However, subsequent observations, including data from the James Webb Space Telescope, refined the orbital calculations and effectively eliminated Earth as a target. The focus then shifted to the possibility of a lunar impact.

Researchers, led by Paul Wiegert from Western University and Athabasca University in Canada, have been simulating the potential impact to understand its consequences. Their findings, currently available on the preprint server arXiv and accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, suggest that a collision would be the most energetic lunar impact recorded in human history. The simulations involved charting 10,000 possible impact locations on the Moon.

A Visible Flash and Potential Meteor Storms

The predicted impact would release energy equivalent to detonating 6.5 megatons of TNT. The resulting flash on the lunar surface is estimated to reach a magnitude between -2.5 and -3. For context, Venus, one of the brightest objects in the night sky, has a magnitude between -3.7 and -4.9. This means the impact flash would likely be visible to the naked eye from Earth.

The flash itself is expected to last for several minutes, followed by an infrared afterglow that could persist for hours. More dramatically, the impact could eject approximately 220 million pounds (100 million kilograms) of lunar material into space, some of which could enter Earth’s atmosphere as meteors. Depending on the impact location on the Moon, this could result in a meteor storm lasting for days.

The study suggests that an impact on the leading side of the Moon could result in an even more spectacular meteor storm than an impact on the trailing side.

Asteroid Characteristics and Future Observations

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is approximately 60 meters (roughly 200 feet) in diameter – about three times the size of the asteroid that exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, in February 2014. While the Chelyabinsk event caused significant damage, the larger size of 2024 YR4 means a direct impact on Earth would have been catastrophic.

The asteroid was discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile on December 27, 2024, when it was approximately 515,116 miles (829,000 kilometers) from Earth. It is currently drifting further away and will next make a close approach in December 2028.

Currently, as of today, February 6, 2026, the probability of a lunar impact remains at 4.3%. Astronomers emphasize the importance of continued observation of 2024 YR4 during its upcoming close flyby to refine the impact timeline and pinpoint the potential crash location on the Moon. Such observations will be crucial for maximizing the scientific return from this event.

A lunar impact from 2024 YR4 would provide a unique opportunity for scientists to observe a crater-forming event in real-time, offering valuable insights into lunar geology and the dynamics of impact processes in the solar system. The event would be a rare chance to study the immediate aftermath of a significant impact on an airless body like the Moon.