At the end of 2024, an asteroid attracted the attention of astronomical researchers. Given the symbol “2024 YR4,” this rock mass is 40-90 meters in diameter, or about a building with a floor of 10-20. Its orbit was calculated to collide with Earth eight years later on December 22, 2032, with a 1% chance of colliding with the Earth. If an asteroid of this size hits Earth, it produces energy equivalent to a massive magnitude 8 earthquake. If they fall into a city, they will cause destruction to the same extent as a megaton-class nuclear bomb, and if they fall into the ocean, a tsunami will surge along the coast.

Repeated observations improve the accuracy of orbit calculations. After its discovery, the probability of collisions in the 2024 YR4 rose to 3% for a while, exciting people and becoming a hot topic in the media. However, the probability gradually decreased after that, and at the time of writing, it was below 0.04% (※1). Probably the 2024 YR4 will not be a threat in 2032. It was a space event that made me get a little prank on it.

However, in the universe, these rock masses float more than the stars. 2024 Even if you dodge the YR4 well, the next beanball thrown at you could hit it. It is believed that such a jackpot occurred 65 million years ago and extincted the dinosaurs. When you hear that, will you feel anxious?

But in fact, I don’t have that kind of concern. This time, it happened to be out of track for the 2024 YR4, but even if its track was on Earth’s hit course, I think it would have been almost always possible to artificially change its track by 2032. It is safe to say that humanity has already developed technology to prevent major extinction due to meteorite impacts.

Let’s introduce the possibility of a meteorite impact and the 2022 experiment that changed the trajectory of a celestial body.

2024 How dangerous was YR4?

The asteroid 2024 YR4, which was found this time, orbits the sun over a four-year period. Its orbit is an elliptical, and when it is farthest from the Sun, it reaches between Mars and Jupiter orbit, and when it is closest to the Sun, it reaches inside Earth orbit. This means that you sometimes get close to Earth and Mars. This means that it could collide with Earth or Mars.

Asteroids that pass near Earth orbit, such as 2024 YR4, are called “Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA).” It also includes comets other than asteroids, and also calls them “Near-Earth Object (NEO).” These are celestial bodies that may bump into Earth in the future.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 approached Earth on December 25, 2024, and the distance at this time was approximately 830,000 kilometers. It’s quite close to an asteroid. Asteroids near Earth look bright, so they were discovered by telescopes at this time.

The orbital period of asteroid 2024 YR4 is almost entirely four years, and when the Earth orbits the Sun four times, the 2024 YR4 orbits once, and both will approach again on December 17, 2028. At this reunion, even at the closest moment, the distance is millions of kilometers, but it is estimated that four years later, on December 22, 2032, it will be much closer.

It knows exactly how fast it is when approaching, and is cosmic speed at 17.27 kilometers per second. I don’t want to get it, but as mentioned above, the chances are very low.

NASA’s Planetary Defense Program

NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office is at the forefront of safeguarding Earth from potential asteroid impacts. The agency’s efforts include detecting, tracking, and characterizing near-Earth objects (NEOs). One of the most significant milestones in this endeavor was the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, launched in November 2021. The DART mission successfully impacted the asteroid Dimorphos in September 2022, demonstrating the capability to alter the trajectory of a celestial body.

The DART mission provided invaluable data on the effectiveness of kinetic impactors as a means of planetary defense. The success of DART has bolstered confidence in humanity’s ability to protect itself from potential asteroid threats. The mission’s findings are being used to refine and improve future planetary defense strategies.

Public Awareness and Preparedness

While the scientific community is actively working on planetary defense, public awareness and preparedness are also crucial. Events like the discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 serve as reminders of the potential risks and the importance of ongoing research and development in this field. NASA and other space agencies around the world are committed to enhancing public understanding and preparedness for such events.

In the United States, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) works closely with NASA to develop response plans for potential asteroid impacts. These plans include early warning systems, evacuation protocols, and post-impact recovery strategies. Public education campaigns and community preparedness programs are also in place to ensure that citizens are informed and ready to act in the event of a potential threat.

Future Prospects

As technology advances, so does our ability to detect and mitigate asteroid threats. Future missions and research will focus on improving detection capabilities, developing more effective deflection techniques, and enhancing global collaboration. The international community, including the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), plays a vital role in coordinating these efforts and ensuring that all nations are prepared to face potential asteroid impacts.

In conclusion, while the discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 may have caused initial concern, it also highlighted the advancements in planetary defense and the collaborative efforts of the global scientific community. With ongoing research, technological innovations, and public preparedness, humanity is better equipped than ever to protect itself from potential asteroid threats.