Atom-Based Quantum Computers May Break Encryption Sooner Than Expected

New research suggests that quantum computers could compromise the encryption used to secure internet communications and digital assets much sooner than previously anticipated. This development creates a renewed sense of urgency for cybersecurity firms and institutions that rely on encrypted data.

According to a paper submitted to arXiv.org on March 30, 2026, by researchers from Caltech and the quantum computing company Oratomic, a quantum computer with as few as 10,000 quantum bits, or qubits, could be sufficient to crack certain types of encryption. This is a significant decrease from the 20 million qubits scientists believed were necessary only a few years ago.

Impact on Encryption Standards

The researchers specifically analyzed elliptic curve cryptography, a widely used encryption method. They calculated that a quantum computer with 9,988 qubits could thwart this encryption, though the process would take approximately 1,000 days.

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The speed of these attacks increases significantly with more qubits. The study reports that with approximately 26,000 qubits, the same encryption could be broken within a single day.

Another common encryption standard, RSA–2048, is also vulnerable. The Caltech and Oratomic researchers found that breaking RSA–2048 would require 100,000 qubits and would take 10 days.

This finding aligns with a separate paper posted to arXiv.org in February 2026 by researchers from Iceberg Quantum in Sydney. That study calculated that RSA encryption could be defeated in one week using a quantum computer with about 100,000 qubits.

Broad Implications for Digital Security

The potential for quantum hacking poses a risk to various digital technologies that depend on authentication and encryption. These include internet communications, credit-card systems and cryptocurrencies.

On March 31, 2026, Google published a paper stating that Bitcoin’s cryptography could be impacted by quantum computing sooner than previously stated. Two independent analyses posted on March 30, 2026—one a white paper from Google and the other a preprint from Oratomic—suggest that these security keys and cryptocurrencies could be cracked before the end of the decade.

For years, the assumption among cybersecurity companies and researchers was that quantum computers would not become a serious threat to digital security for at least ten years. These new findings have prompted a reassessment of those timelines.

Scientific and Industry Response

The findings have caused concern among academics and financial professionals. Jintai Ding, a mathematician at Tsinghua University in Beijing, noted that the studies have created a renewed urgency and sparked discussions among bankers and those interested in cryptocurrencies.

Bas Westerbaan, a mathematician at the internet-services company Cloudflare, described the news as a real shock and stated that the company is very concerned as they digest the implications.

Cloudflare is one of several cybersecurity firms currently reassessing their timelines to provide protection against quantum hacking.

Future Applications of Quantum Computing

While the ability to break encryption presents a security risk, the researchers noted that the ability to build useful quantum computers with fewer qubits could accelerate progress in other scientific fields.

The calculations suggest that quantum computers could soon have a significant impact on the following areas:

• Artificial Intelligence (AI)
• Chemistry
• Materials science

the papers from Caltech, Oratomic, and Iceberg Quantum have not yet been peer-reviewed.