Australia’s Food Supply Under Pressure: Fertilizer Shortages, Fuel Crises, and Growing Threats to Farmers and Your Bread

Australian farmers are facing a dual crisis of soaring fuel prices and critical fertiliser shortages as the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz disrupts global supply chains, threatening grain production and pushing up food costs nationwide.

The war between the US, Israel and Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint through which 43% of the world’s urea fertiliser and 44% of sulphur used in phosphate fertilisers typically pass, according to The Guardian.

Farmers attempting to sow winter grain crops in southern states are encountering uncertain access to both diesel and urea just as early autumn rains provide ideal planting conditions, ABC Rural reported on March 18, 2026.

Daniel Linklater, a north-west Victorian farmer near Mildura, said his farm took advantage of an early rain break but stressed the need for secure fuel and fertiliser supplies to capitalise on the moisture.

“We need fuel to plant the crop. We need fertiliser to feed the crop,” Linklater stated, adding that he cannot be certain of having the full amount of resources required for the season.

Robinvale, in Victoria’s north-west, ran out of fuel last weekend amid panic buying and stretched supplies to regional and rural areas, according to the same ABC Rural report.

The disruption comes as Australia’s food system faces mounting pressure from climate change, with the National Climate Risk Assessment showing increased risks from heatwaves, floods, droughts and bushfires, SBS News reported.

Experts warn that if fertiliser supply disruptions last beyond June, the most acute price increases in grains will occur towards the end of 2026 and into 2027, The Guardian noted, citing an economist’s projection.

Australia produces enough food to feed 75 million people and exports 70% of its produce, but intensifying climate change and global supply shocks are eroding that advantage, SBS News added.

In 2025, one in five Australian households skipped meals or went whole days without eating, while 36% of children and adolescents and 56% of adults failed to meet daily fruit and vegetable intake in 2022, with 42% of calories coming from ultra-processed foods, according to SBS News.

The combined impact of rising fuel and fertiliser costs is driving up food prices, with farmers warning consumers to expect increases at the supermarket, ABC Rural reported.

As the Iran conflict continues to disrupt critical agricultural inputs, Australian grain farmers face a season defined by uncertainty, where the ability to take advantage of favourable weather hinges on access to diesel and fertiliser that may not be reliably available.