Baht on High Alert: Experts Predict Volatile Week Ahead with 32.10-32.70 Range Amidst Gold Price Fluctuations

Kasikorn Bank Public Company Limited (KBANK) Predicts Baht Movement for Next Week

KBANK forecasts the baht movement for next week (30 September – 4 October 2024) to be in the range of 32.10-32.70 baht/dollar, following the market closure at 32.39 baht/dollar on Friday, 27 September 2024.

The baht strengthened beyond the lines of 33.00 and 32.50 baht/dollar in the past week, reaching its strongest level in 31 months at 32.36 baht/dollar. This upward trend is in line with the general picture of Asian currencies, led by the Yuan, which benefited from hopes for economic stimulus measures from the Chinese government.

The baht’s strengthening is also attributed to the increase in gold prices in the world market, which reached a new all-time high, counteracting the sentiment of the dollar. The dollar remains weak amid speculation about the Fed’s tendency to cut interest rates in the future.

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has sent a signal to closely monitor the baht situation, following its continued strengthening during this period.

Key Factors to Watch Next Week

• August economic and wage report from the BoT
• Statement of the President of the Federal Reserve (Fed)
• Direction of foreign capital
• Gold price situation in the world market
• Other currencies in the region

Important US economic figures to watch include PMI and ISM indices, private sector employment figures, non-agricultural employment data, and unemployment rate in September.

The market is also waiting for September PMI index numbers from China, Japan, Eurozone, and England, as well as England’s 2Q24 GDP numbers and the September inflation rate from the Eurozone.