Baht on High Alert: KBANK Predicts Volatile Week Ahead with 33.50-34.20 Range Amid Thai Export and US Economic Uncertainty

Kasikorn Bank Public Company Limited or KBANK Looking at the range of movement of the value of the baht next week (28 October – 1 November) at the level of 33.50-34.20 baht per dollar. Meanwhile, the Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors that need to be followed, including export figures / economic reports and September salaries in Thailand. the direction of foreign capital and Asian currencies, while important US economic figures include the Consumer Confidence Index Private sector employment figures

By non-agricultural employment numbers Unemployment rate and October PMI/ISM manufacturing index, labor market gauge from JOLTS, number of home sales contracts pending closing, inflation measured from PCE/Core PCE Price Index in September, and the 3rd quarter 2024 GDP numbers

In addition, the market is still waiting to follow the results of Japan’s general election (27 October), the results of the BOJ meeting (30-31 October), and China’s October PMI index. Including GDP numbers for 3Q/2024, inflation rate in October. from the Eurozone as well.

in the last week The baht is reaching its weakest level for a long time. 6 weeks in line with the trend of other Asian currencies amid expectations that the Fed will not rush to cut policy rates. The baht depreciated past the 33.50 baht per dollar line to reach the weakest level in 6 weeks (since 11 September 2024) at 33.84 baht per dollar, in line with the picture of the depreciation of other currencies in the Asian region and the Yuan after that the People’s Bank of China announced a reduction in the 1-year and 5-year LPR interest rates, while the US dollar strengthened in line with US bond yields which rose amid expectations that the Fed would gradually cut rates interest gradually and the market has adjusted some views to increase the possibility that Mr Trump may win the US presidential election this time.

Moreover, the depreciation of the baht was consistent with foreign investors’ net selling positions in Thai bonds and stocks during the week. Against the dollar, there are positive factors from the US economic figures, such as the PMI Index including the preliminary manufacturing and service sectors for October and the number of weekly jobless claims that came out better than the expected in the market too.

On Friday, October 25, 2024, the baht closed the domestic market at 33.79 baht per dollar. compared to 33.16 baht per dollar. On the previous Friday (18 Oct. ’24)

Regarding the status of foreign investors’ investment portfolio between 21-25 October 2024, foreign investors net sold 2,781 million baht of Thai stocks and had a position on the net outflow side of the Thai bond market of 4,094 million baht ( Posted divided into net sales of bonds of 4,084 million baht and expired debt instruments of 10 million baht)