Market Bottoms Out,But Don’t Expect a Boom

Thailand’s residential property market appears to‍ have reached⁢ a floor,with developers anticipating a period of ⁣stability rather than ⁢notable growth or decline in the latter half of 2025. ‍This assessment comes amid a complex economic landscape⁣ marked by slowing global growth ⁤and domestic challenges.

Economic Headwinds⁤ Dampen Outlook

Uthai Uthaisangsuk, president of Sansiri, a SET-listed developer, stated that the property sector’s⁣ performance is intrinsically ‍linked to overall economic growth. While Thailand saw ⁤nearly ⁣3% GDP growth in the first ⁤half of ⁤2025, analysts are ⁢forecasting a slowdown. Factors contributing to this include the impact of US tariffs on exports and a slight dip ⁢in tourism, despite the approaching high season.⁣ Some ⁢projections suggest GDP‍ growth in the second half could ⁣fall to as low as⁢ 1%, resulting in a ⁣full-year⁣ growth ⁢rate of around 2%.

These negative factors ⁢- including⁣ political instability, the border conflict between Thailand⁤ and Cambodia, the US tariff hike and ⁣the decline in foreign tourist arrivals – have already impacted the market and are‍ expected to continue ⁣doing so, according to Uthai.

sectoral Performance: Condos Outperform Houses

The condominium⁢ sector has demonstrated more resilience,particularly in locations popular with foreign buyers. ⁣Sansiri,such as,fully sold out a new project in Pattaya during ⁢the first quarter of 2025,with half of the units purchased by international ‍investors. Government initiatives, such as central bank rate cuts and the introduction of a⁤ 20-baht flat fare for‍ mass transit,⁣ are anticipated to boost demand for suburban condominiums in the fourth quarter.

In contrast, ‍the single-detached house market has⁢ experienced stagnation as the fourth quarter of the previous year, and this trend is expected ⁣to continue. Demand⁣ remains flat, with limited ⁣signs of improvement.

Developer⁤ Outlook and ⁢Projections

Despite the challenging environment,⁤ Sansiri is maintaining its full-year projections of 46 billion ⁤baht for both presales and transfers,⁤ indicating confidence that these headwinds have already been factored into their forecasts.

Supaluck Chanpitak, ⁢CEO of⁣ Britania, a low-rise housing developer, acknowledged⁣ that⁢ lower interest ‍rates offer a potential‍ possibility but cautioned that recovery⁤ in the low-rise housing market will be gradual. The purchasing power for low-rise homes has yet to show clear signs of recovery, she noted, adding that⁤ while lower rates ‍will facilitate approvals, sales are likely to remain stable.

Peerapong Jaroon-ek, CEO‍ of Origin Property,⁢ highlighted a ⁤positive development:⁣ the finalization of the US⁤ tariff rate at ⁤19%, which is considered competitive and could attract foreign direct investment. He also ‍pointed to government measures aimed at⁣ stimulating the property sector as‍ signs that the thai economy is beginning to stabilize.