Bangladesh Election 2026: India Ties & Political Reset | Nikkei Asia

DHAKA/NEW DELHI – Bangladesh’s recent election, concluding on February 8th, offers a potential inflection point in the historically complex relationship between Dhaka and New Delhi, though significant tensions remain. The victory of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, while contested by the opposition, presents an opportunity for a recalibration of ties, following a period of noticeable strain, according to analysts.

The visit by Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to Dhaka in December to attend the funeral of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), signaled New Delhi’s intent to reassess its approach. This gesture went beyond standard diplomatic protocol, indicating a desire to engage with the political landscape in Bangladesh despite the increasingly fraught environment.

Several factors contributed to the downturn in relations. Tensions surrounding the Hasina government’s crackdown on opposition figures, particularly ahead of the election, raised concerns in New Delhi. The BNP alleged widespread irregularities and violence during the election process, further complicating the situation. Beyond political concerns, issues related to sports and energy have also played a role.

The relationship between India and Bangladesh is crucial for regional stability and economic cooperation. Bangladesh is a vital transit route for India, particularly to its northeastern states. However, the potential for instability in Bangladesh, coupled with concerns about the rise of religious extremism, presents a significant challenge for India. The election outcome, carries implications for India’s strategic interests in the region.

Energy cooperation is another key area of focus. India imports electricity from Bangladesh, and We find ongoing discussions regarding potential joint ventures in the energy sector. However, disagreements over water sharing, particularly concerning the Teesta River, continue to be a sticking point. Resolving this issue is seen as critical for fostering greater trust and cooperation between the two countries.

The economic relationship between India and Bangladesh is substantial. India is one of Bangladesh’s largest trading partners, and Bangladeshi businesses have been increasingly investing in India. However, trade imbalances and non-tariff barriers remain challenges. A more stable political environment in Bangladesh could facilitate increased trade and investment flows.

The situation is further complicated by China’s growing influence in Bangladesh. Beijing has been investing heavily in infrastructure projects in the country, raising concerns in New Delhi about potential strategic implications. India will likely seek to strengthen its own economic and diplomatic engagement with Bangladesh to counter China’s growing presence.

The election of Sheikh Hasina, despite the controversies surrounding the process, provides a degree of predictability for India. However, the legitimacy of the election remains a concern, and the potential for continued political unrest could undermine stability. India will need to navigate a delicate balance between maintaining its relationship with the Hasina government and engaging with other stakeholders in Bangladesh.

Looking ahead, a “reset” in Dhaka-Delhi ties will require addressing the underlying issues that have contributed to the recent downturn. This includes addressing concerns about human rights and political freedoms, resolving outstanding disputes over water sharing, and promoting greater economic cooperation. The visit by Jaishankar to the funeral of Khaleda Zia suggests a willingness on the part of New Delhi to engage in a more constructive dialogue with all parties involved.

The broader regional context also plays a role. The ongoing turmoil in Afghanistan and the rise of extremism in the region pose shared challenges for both India and Bangladesh. Cooperation on counter-terrorism and border security will be essential for maintaining stability.

The situation in Myanmar, with the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis, also has implications for the region. Bangladesh is hosting a large number of Rohingya refugees who fled Myanmar, and India has been providing assistance to Bangladesh in addressing this humanitarian challenge.

The economic outlook for Bangladesh is also a key factor. While the country has experienced impressive economic growth in recent years, it faces challenges such as climate change, infrastructure deficits, and income inequality. India can play a role in supporting Bangladesh’s sustainable development efforts.

The strength of the Thai baht and ringgit, contrasted with the weakness of the rupiah and peso, as observed across ASEAN, suggests continued turbulence in the region through 2026. This broader economic instability adds another layer of complexity to the Bangladesh-India relationship, potentially impacting trade and investment flows.

the global economic landscape, including the actions of the United States – specifically, as noted by William Pesek, the potential impact of Donald Trump’s rhetoric on the dollar – could create opportunities for China and influence the dynamics in South Asia. This adds another dimension to the strategic calculations of both India and Bangladesh.

the future of the Dhaka-Delhi relationship will depend on the willingness of both sides to address the challenges and build a more sustainable and mutually beneficial partnership. The election provides an opportunity for a fresh start, but it will require sustained effort and a commitment to dialogue and cooperation.