Bayern Weather: Rain, Snow & Flood Risk – February Forecast

Oberbayern – A shift in the weather is underway in Upper Bavaria: conditions are becoming significantly wetter, and simultaneously, winter weather is drawing closer. Conditions could become particularly dynamic in the Alpine regions.

The relatively calm weather of recent days ended on Thursday. A strong precipitation area has moved in, with rain currently dominating lower elevations, while snow is initially falling only above approximately 1200 to 1500 meters.

Weekend Outlook: Cold Air Arriving – Rain Turning to Snow

However, colder air masses will be ushered in just in time for the weekend. The current rain is expected to increasingly turn to snowfall. Whether this snow will reach the valleys remains uncertain, with forecasts currently resembling something of a gamble.

Meteorologist Kai Zorn reports that significant snowfall is expected in the mountains: “Now it’s coming – the Alpine snow! There will likely be as much snow as hasn’t fallen all winter so far: in the north and northwest facing slopes, easily 2 to 3 meters, and locally even more, could accumulate.” He adds, “But the lowlands will also experience phases of snow, then mild air with flood risk!” He further writes, “February will end wet and significantly increase the precipitation average of the meteorological winter…”

Flood Risk in Upper Bavaria?

Temperatures are forecast to rise again in the new week, accompanied by continued rain. However, overall weather trends increasingly point towards winter conditions – a fitting end to a late winter finale. While unusual, current calculations suggest that a possible north-facing slope could bring substantial snow accumulations to and around the Alps. Around February 21st, snow depths between 20 and 80 centimeters are being simulated – whether these values will actually be reached remains to be seen.

One thing seems certain: a very wet phase lies ahead. Some models predict up to 300 liters per square meter in some areas by the end of the month, and even more locally. If the milder model variants prevail and the snow is limited to elevations below 1500 meters, this could significantly increase the flood risk in parts of the region.

For those who have had enough of winter, patience is still required. A sustained spring awakening is not expected until April at the earliest. Until then, we must prepare for further, sometimes heavy, winter interludes – as a result of the current developments around the polar vortex.

Detailed Regional Forecast:

• Saturday (February 14th): Saturday begins with early temperatures of 0 degrees in Altötting, the Berchtesgaden region, Mühldorf, Rosenheim, and Traunstein. There is initially a lot of fog and high fog, which will clear in places by midday – with the sun even appearing briefly in some areas. From the afternoon, a low will affect us, and it will begin to rain everywhere. In the course of the afternoon and evening, the rain could increasingly turn into snowfall. Winter road conditions are therefore to be expected. The highest temperatures will reach 4 degrees in the Berchtesgaden region, Rosenheim, and Traunstein. Temperatures will reach up to 5 degrees in Mühldorf and up to 6 degrees in Altötting. However, temperatures will continue to fall during the day.
• Sunday (February 15th): Sunday starts from a wintery night: in the morning, temperatures are -6 degrees in the Berchtesgaden region, Mühldorf, and Rosenheim. In Traunstein and Altötting, the thermometer drops to -5 degrees. Further snowfalls will occur repeatedly, gradually turning into snow showers. The sun is most likely to appear in Traunstein. The highest temperatures will reach -1 degree in Rosenheim and Mühldorf and around 0 degrees in Altötting, Traunstein, and the Berchtesgaden region.
• Monday (February 16th): Monday brings us, after lows of -8 degrees in the Berchtesgaden region and -6 degrees in Altötting, Mühldorf, Rosenheim, and Traunstein, the next snow. However, in the course of the day, rain may also mix in at elevations below 500 to 600 meters. The daily high temperatures climb to 2 degrees in the Berchtesgaden region, Rosenheim, and Traunstein. Temperatures reach up to 3 degrees in Altötting and Mühldorf.
• Tuesday (February 17th): Tuesday begins with early temperatures of -1 to 0 degrees. The clouds are dense and snow showers repeatedly pass through, which, however, will turn into rain in Altötting and Mühldorf. The high temperatures are 1 to 2 degrees.

The regional weather report is presented by “Wetterküche Bayern”.

Further Outlook

It will continue to rain on Wednesday and Thursday, with the snow increasingly turning into rain at elevations below 800 meters. Temperatures will even rise to 11 degrees on Friday. Accordingly, the snow line will also be high.

Something of a sunny spell may appear for the new weekend, but then more turbulence is expected – possibly with a lot of snow. Whether it will snow in lower regions remains to be seen. Locally, a lot of snow could accumulate. This would be a good thing: because if it were warmer, we could also face an increasing flood risk in our region. (mh)