Bayly’s “The Coup Plotters”: Chávez, Trump & Latin American Politics

The conviction of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro for his alleged role in a coup plot, coupled with the ongoing political turmoil in Venezuela, underscores a disturbing trend: the persistence of anti-democratic movements and the varying degrees of accountability faced by their leaders. While Bolsonaro has been sentenced to over 27 years in prison, the lack of similar consequences for figures like former U.S. President Donald Trump highlights a critical disparity in how attempted power grabs are addressed globally.

Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court found Bolsonaro guilty on September 11, 2025, of being part of an armed criminal organization and other charges related to a plot to overturn the results of the 2022 election, which he lost to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Prosecutors alleged that Bolsonaro and his allies discussed a scheme to assassinate Lula and incited the January 8, 2023 riot in Brasília, hoping the military would intervene and restore him to power. Four of the five justices on the panel voted to convict, with Justice Cármen Lúcia stating that Bolsonaro acted “with the purpose of eroding democracy, and institutions.” He is currently under house arrest as of July 21, 2025, and is expected to appeal the verdict.

This case stands in stark contrast to the situation surrounding Donald Trump, who, despite his attempts to overturn the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, has not faced comparable legal repercussions. As noted in recent analysis, failed coup leaders who avoid punishment are more likely to attempt a political comeback, a dynamic that raises concerns about the future of democratic stability.

The situation in Venezuela, meanwhile, offers a different, yet equally troubling, illustration of authoritarian tendencies. While not directly linked to the Bolsonaro case, the long-standing accusations of coup attempts and political manipulation within the country provide a broader context for understanding the fragility of democratic institutions in Latin America. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has repeatedly alleged assassination attempts and accused external actors of plotting against his government.

The recent publication of a novel by Peruvian author Jaime Bayly, “Los golpistas” (The Coup Plotters), offers a literary exploration of these themes. The book, inspired by the attempted coup against Hugo Chávez in April 2002, delves into the motivations and personalities involved, drawing parallels between historical events and contemporary political dynamics. Bayly, drawing on his experience as a journalist, reconstructs the events of the coup, examining the roles of key figures and the broader political context. He notes that the coup attempt against Chávez was, in his view, “risible,” and that the subsequent actions of Chávez – imprisoning General Baduel, who had helped restore him to power – were a tragic culmination of the events.

Bayly’s work also touches upon the influence of figures like Fidel Castro on Chávez, suggesting a manipulative dynamic where Castro exploited Chávez’s vulnerabilities. He describes Castro as a “genius of evil,” capable of manipulating artists and wielding significant influence over Venezuelan affairs. The author also expresses concern about the current state of global politics, criticizing the leadership of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as detrimental to international stability.

The author also reflects on the challenges of communication and the importance of a clear message in politics, noting that Chávez possessed a persuasive ability that his opponents lacked. He draws a parallel to the recent political turmoil in Peru, questioning the quality of leadership and the potential for corruption within the political system. Bayly expresses a deep skepticism about the future of Peruvian politics, stating that he prefers not to vote, as he inevitably regrets his choices.

Bayly’s assessment of Maduro is particularly harsh, dismissing him as a “matón” (thug) lacking the literary or political depth of figures like Chávez or Castro. He suggests that Maduro’s relationship with Trump is driven by self-interest, and expresses concern that Trump’s policies will further undermine democratic progress in Venezuela.

The author’s perspective, informed by decades of experience as a journalist and observer of Latin American politics, offers a sobering assessment of the region’s challenges. He highlights the enduring threat of authoritarianism, the importance of accountability for those who attempt to subvert democratic institutions, and the need for strong leadership committed to the principles of justice and transparency. The comparison between the fates of Bolsonaro and Trump, and the ongoing struggles within Venezuela, serve as a stark reminder of the fragility of democracy and the constant vigilance required to protect it.

The situation in Venezuela, as Bayly suggests, is further complicated by external influences. Maduro has long accused the United States of involvement in plots to overthrow his government, and the relationship between the two countries remains deeply strained. The potential for further instability in Venezuela, coupled with the rise of authoritarian tendencies elsewhere in the region, poses a significant challenge to international security and democratic values.