Beijing’s Rise: How China’s Success Threatens Global Stability and Competition

The Chinese Communist Party’s definition of success would lead to a more dangerous, impoverished, and tyrannical world for everyone else, according to analysis presented at a recent conference on U.S.-China competition.

Matthew Kroenig, a columnist at Foreign Policy and vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, participated in a daylong conference focused on the question “If China succeeds, what are the implications for our security, prosperity, and freedom?” While colleagues attempted to devise win-win scenarios where China’s rise could coexist with continued U.S. And allied flourishing, Kroenig took a different approach by examining how the Chinese Communist Party itself defines success.

His analysis concluded that contrary to more optimistic assessments, the CCP’s success would likely result in a more dangerous, impoverished, and tyrannical global environment. This perspective challenges narratives suggesting that China’s ascendancy could be managed peacefully within the existing international order.

The assessment comes amid ongoing strategic competition between the United States and China, particularly in technology development and global influence. Recent Chinese state media commentary has framed its economic and technological development as contributing to global stability, with official outlets stating that “a stable and developing China injects more stability and certainty into a world fraught with change and turbulence.”