Belarus is increasingly integrated into Russia’s military posture, effectively becoming a “forward operating base” against Ukraine and posing a growing threat to European security, according to assessments from U.S. Intelligence and Ukrainian officials. This shift, years in the making, has seen Minsk surrender its sovereignty to Moscow in exchange for political and economic support, culminating in the deployment of Russian military infrastructure and weaponry on Belarusian territory.
Nuclear Blackmail and Hybrid Warfare
Recent developments have focused on the deployment of Russia’s Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile system in Belarus. While Moscow and Minsk claim the system is intended as a deterrent, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Russia of using Belarus to circumvent Ukraine’s defenses and launch attacks on western regions. Zelenskyy stated on , that Ukraine has information regarding the possible locations of Oreshnik deployments and is sharing this intelligence with international partners.
Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leader of the Belarusian opposition, contends that such actions are part of a broader “hybrid war” waged by the Lukashenko regime in concert with Russia. She believes that statements regarding the deployment of advanced weaponry are intended to provoke and create a perception of strength, diverting European attention and resources away from supporting Ukraine. “They want Europe to pay more attention to its own security rather than, for example, helping Ukraine,” Tsikhanouskaya said.
This hybrid warfare extends beyond military deployments, encompassing actions like the forced landing of a Ryanair flight in Minsk in – an incident involving the arrest of Belarusian opposition activist Roman Protasevich – and the orchestration of migration crises targeting Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Tsikhanouskaya warns that these actions represent only the beginning of a sustained campaign of destabilization.
Lukashenko’s Role in the Conflict
Tsikhanouskaya emphasizes that Aleksandr Lukashenko has already taken every possible step detrimental to Ukraine and is likely to continue doing so. “If someone says that Lukashenko is not guilty or that he cannot be that bad, everything bad that Lukashenko could do to Ukraine, he has already done and will continue to do,” she stated. However, she attributes the absence of a direct Belarusian military invasion of Ukraine not to Lukashenko’s restraint, but rather to the firm opposition of Belarusian society to the war.
The Kremlin’s long-term strategy involves the de facto annexation of Belarus through the Union State framework, a process that has significantly augmented Russia’s military and economic capabilities. This integration, according to U.S. Intelligence briefings, has fundamentally altered the security landscape along NATO’s eastern flank, complicating defense planning and increasing uncertainty.
A Threat to Ukraine and Europe
The situation poses a significant threat not only to Ukraine but also to wider European security. Belarus, under Lukashenko’s control, is viewed as a permanent source of instability. “As long as Belarus remains under Lukashenko’s control, it will always be a threat to Ukraine,” Tsikhanouskaya concluded. The deployment of Russian missile systems, coupled with the use of Belarusian territory to bypass Ukrainian defenses, raises concerns about the potential for escalation and the vulnerability of NATO member states.
In , Lukashenko claimed that Belarusian enterprises were manufacturing launchers for the Oreshnik system, and anticipated deploying approximately ten such systems on Belarusian territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin subsequently announced that Oreshnik systems would be placed on combat duty by the end of , a claim Lukashenko echoed, stating the system was already in Belarus and “going on combat duty” on .
The evolving situation underscores the need for increased vigilance and a reassessment of security strategies along NATO’s eastern border. The integration of Belarus into Russia’s military architecture represents a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape, demanding a coordinated response from the international community to deter further aggression and safeguard regional stability.
