Beyond the Brink: The Fallout of Putin’s Daring New ‘Red Line’ with the West
Vladimir Putin Draws Red Line: Warning the West on Ukraine’s Use of Long-Range Missiles
Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a stern warning to the West, stating that Moscow would consider the West’s permission for Kiev forces to use long-range weapons transferred by them to attack Russian territory as “direct involvement” in the conflict in Ukraine.
Speaking in St Petersburg on September 12, Mr. Putin emphasized that the move would significantly change the nature of the conflict, implying that NATO members, the United States, and European countries would be fighting against Russia.
Putin explained that to launch missiles at Russia, Ukraine would need data from Western satellites, and only military personnel from NATO countries would be able to “enter flight missions into missile systems.” This statement is seen as a clear warning from the Russian leader to the West.
The question remains whether the West will cross that “red line” and, if so, how Moscow will react. According to the BBC, Russia has drawn “red lines” before and seen them crossed. Specifically, when announcing the start of Moscow’s “special military operation” in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Mr. Putin warned that Russia would respond immediately to any threats.
Western leaders, however, ignored what was widely believed to be a Russian nuclear threat at the time. Washington and its allies have since supplied Ukraine with tanks, advanced missile systems, and US-made F-16 fighter jets. This year, Moscow accused Kiev of using long-range US ATACMS missiles to target Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.
Over the past two years, Russian officials and media have repeatedly accused the West of being “anti-Russian” or waging “a war” against the country. But President Putin’s latest remarks suggest that he views targeting internationally recognized Russian territory with Western missile systems as taking the conflict to a new level.
Putin did not specify how Moscow would react, stating that “we will make decisions accordingly, based on the threats we will face.” However, he had already revealed some clues in June, suggesting that Russia would improve its air defense system and destroy missiles launched by Ukraine.
Furthermore, Putin hinted that Moscow has considered arming Western adversaries to strike at their own targets abroad, stating that “if someone thinks it is possible to supply such weapons to a conflict zone to attack our territory and create problems for us, why can’t we supply the same weapons to other regions of the world where they will aim them at the sensitive facilities of those countries that are doing the same to Russia?”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov announced earlier this month that Moscow would revise its nuclear doctrine, which stipulates under what circumstances Russia could consider using nuclear weapons. Ryabkov said the decision was “linked to the escalation of Western adversaries.”
As tensions escalate, Western leaders will have to decide which they value more – the risk of escalating the conflict or the need to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied missiles. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is currently in Washington for talks with US President Joe Biden, where they are expected to discuss Ukraine and long-range missiles.
Analysts believe that the situation will require careful consideration from Western leaders, as the stakes are high, and the consequences of crossing Russia’s “red line” are uncertain.
