New York Manufacturing Index Sees First Rise in a Year

The New York Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) announced on September 15th that the September New York Manufacturing Index (Empire State Manufacturing Survey) recorded 11.5, up about 16 points from -4.7 the previous month.

This marks the first increase in a year since November last year (9.1) and the highest figure since April 2022 (24.6). The Empire State Manufacturing Index is a figure calculated based on a survey of local manufacturers, and a figure above 0 means that business conditions are expanding.

Key Takeaways from the Survey

• New orders showed a gradual increase trend, with a 17-point increase from the previous month to 9.4.
• The transportation index rose 18 points to 17.9.
• The inventory index rose 11 points to 0.0.
• The number of workers index was -5.7, indicating a decrease in the number of workers.
• The prices paid or received by companies were 23.2 and 7.4, respectively, showing no significant difference from the previous month.

Business Outlook and Capital Spending

The outlook index for business conditions rose 8 points from the previous month to 30.6. The New York Fed said 45% of respondents expect business conditions to improve over the next six months.

However, capital spending appears to be decreasing. The capital spending index fell 11 points to -2.1, marking the first time since 2020 that capital spending has turned negative.

Expert Insights

“Manufacturing activity in New York has turned positive for the first time in almost a year, as transportation conditions have improved markedly,” said Richard Deitz, an economic research director at the New York Fed. “Even though hiring is declining modestly and capital investment is declining, business optimism is up.”