Bitcoin Dump: Long-Term Holders Sell $45 Billion
- Recent Bitcoin price declines, exceeding 20% from a recent high, suggest a shift from leveraged selling to a loss of confidence among long-term holders.Analysis from 10x Research indicates...
- As of November 6, 2023, Bitcoin experienced a significant price drop, falling as much as 7.4% on Tuesday and briefly dipping below $35,000 for the first time sence...
- Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, reports that long-term Bitcoin holders have sold approximately 400,000 Bitcoin over the past month, representing an outflow of roughly $14 billion (calculated...
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Bitcoin Sell-Off May Persist Into Spring 2024, Echoing 2022 Bear Market
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Recent Bitcoin price declines, exceeding 20% from a recent high, suggest a shift from leveraged selling to a loss of confidence among long-term holders.Analysis from 10x Research indicates a significant outflow of bitcoin from these holders, potentially signaling a prolonged downturn.
Current Market Conditions
As of November 6, 2023, Bitcoin experienced a significant price drop, falling as much as 7.4% on Tuesday and briefly dipping below $35,000 for the first time sence June 2023. While a partial recovery of 1.7% occurred on Wednesday morning in New York, options traders are anticipating further declines according to Bloomberg. This contrasts with October 2023’s crash, which was largely attributed to forced selling due to leverage.
Long-Term Holder Activity and Ancient Parallels
Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, reports that long-term Bitcoin holders have sold approximately 400,000 Bitcoin over the past month, representing an outflow of roughly $14 billion (calculated at $35,000/BTC).Bloomberg notes this has created an imbalance in the market. Thielen warns this “unwind” could extend well into spring 2024.
He draws a comparison to the 2021-2022 bear market, during which large holders sold over one million Bitcoin over nearly a year. If the current pace of selling continues, Thielen estimates a similar duration for the current downturn – approximately six more months.
| Period | Bitcoin Sold by Large Holders | Approximate Value (USD) @ $35,000/BTC |
|---|---|---|
| Past Month (Nov 2023) | 400,000 BTC | $14 Billion |
| 2021-2022 Bear Market | >1,000,000 BTC | > $35 Billion (estimated) |
Implications and Potential scenarios
The shift from leveraged liquidations to selling by long-term holders suggests a deeper concern than simply margin calls. It indicates that some investors are losing confidence in Bitcoin’s short-to-medium term prospects