US Presidential Election: Early Voting Trends and Predictions

Key States to Watch: The “Three Blue Wall States”

The US presidential election is one of the most significant international events of the year, with people worldwide paying close attention to its potential impact on the global situation. Various organizations have begun surveying public opinion to gauge the likely outcome. A recent analysis of the early voting system in the United States reveals that the earliest voting time varies by state, with some states offering nearly two months of voting time.

Public Opinion and Predictions

According to a survey by Polymarket, the world’s largest political and world event prediction trading market, 51% of respondents support Republican presidential candidate Trump, while 47% support Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. However, a prediction by the US Capitol Hill newspaper suggests that Harris has a 56% chance of winning.

Early Voting Trends

Twitter user “Alex Chen” pointed out that while the official voting day is set for November 5, early voting is already underway in many states. In fact, nearly 100 million American voters chose to vote early in the 2020 presidential election, accounting for 63% of total voters. The earliest state to start early voting this year was North Carolina, which began on September 6, with nearly two months of voting time.

Voting Systems and Concerns

Some states, such as New Hampshire, Alabama, and Mississippi, do not have early voting systems, but voters can choose alternative “absentee voting” methods. In Oregon, Maine, and North Dakota, voters must understand the regulations of their state, county, constituency, and polling station to ensure compliance. Complicated voting procedures have raised concerns among some voters, with a recent poll suggesting that some believe fraud is likely to occur during the voting process.

Predictions and Analysis

The same poll found that among Trump supporters, 78% believe that Biden committed election fraud, while 98% of Harris supporters do not believe in election fraud. The survey also concluded that younger voters and those with higher incomes are less likely to believe in election fraud claims. According to simulation data, if Harris can win the “three blue wall states” of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, she can narrowly win with 270 electoral votes.

Congressional Election Predictions

Unlike the presidential election, the US congressional election is expected to be dominated by the Republican Party, with a 56% chance of winning the House of Representatives and a 70% chance of winning the Senate.