Radev’s Political Future: New Party Expected After Presidential Resignation
Bulgaria’s former president, Rumen Radev, resigned on Monday, , fueling speculation that he will form a new political party to contest upcoming elections. The move comes after a period of political instability marked by frequent snap elections and weak coalition governments.
According to political analyst Petar Cholakov, while former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s political position isn’t currently weak, a 9% difference in a sociological survey
favoring Radev’s potential new project could quickly shift. Cholakov cautioned that this lead is not necessarily secure.
The resignation concludes four years during which Radev served as a stabilizing, yet influential figure amidst a series of short-lived governments. He initially won the 2016 presidential election as an independent candidate, supported by the Bulgarian Socialist Party, defeating GERB candidate Tsetska Tsacheva. He secured a second term in 2021 with 66% of the vote in the second round.
Cholakov suggested there is discussion of a potential cabinet formed by Iliana Iotova and Andrey Gyurov that could seek support from unexpected political formations. He questioned how a diverse cabinet, potentially including figures associated with Bŭcharova, might impact the electoral prospects of the PP-DB coalition.
A significant concern, Cholakov noted, revolves around the potential incompatibility of Andrey Gyurov’s position as a deputy governor of the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB). He speculated that the presidency might possess internal information regarding a ruling from the court in Luxembourg concerning this matter.
Cholakov stated that a finding of incompatibility for Gyurov would be the most dismal scenario
and could pose a risk for PP-DB
. He added that this could have a negative effect on PP-DB, particularly given existing challenges related to the Petrohan project.
Based on recent polling data, Cholakov believes Radev has successfully built a large network on the ground
. The structure of this network and its potential impact on voter sentiment remain to be seen. He characterized Radev’s decision to resign and enter the political arena as a risky, unprecedented move
in Bulgarian political history, but one that appears, at least currently, to be justified by the polling results.
Interestingly, Cholakov highlighted that Radev is attracting voters from the “Vazrazhdane” party, a group known for its Eurosceptic views. This presents a question for Kostadinov and “Vazrazhdane,” as to whether they will become more radical in response. Radev, according to Cholakov, is signaling a willingness to maintain relations with both Brussels and Moscow, suggesting a desire to improve ties with both.
The question of whether Radev’s project will successfully integrate remains open. Cholakov also commented on the potential coalitions and partners for Radev, though specifics were not detailed.
Radev’s resignation follows a period of prolonged political crisis in Bulgaria. Since April 2021, the country has held seven parliamentary elections, with a likely eighth election anticipated in the spring of 2026. This instability has been fueled by concerns over voter fraud, election integrity, and corruption. From 2017 to 2021, Bulgaria was governed by the center-right, pro-EU GERB party, but the party’s dominance has been challenged by anti-establishment movements and a growing public desire for change.
The backdrop to Radev’s potential return to politics includes widespread public protests against corruption and disillusionment with established politicians like Boyko Borissov. Despite facing challenges, including scrutiny over his stance on Ukraine and interim government appointments, Radev’s popularity suggests he could be a significant force in the upcoming elections.
