CA Governor 2026: Democrats Fear Crowded Field Could Lead to GOP Victory

SAN FRANCISCO — California Democratic leaders are grappling with a growing fear that a crowded field of gubernatorial candidates could inadvertently pave the way for a Republican victory in November. The concern, openly discussed at the California Democratic Party’s annual convention on Friday, centers on the possibility of Democrats splitting the vote and allowing two Republican candidates to advance to the general election under the state’s unique “jungle primary” system.

State party chairman Rusty Hicks acknowledged the anxiety, stating, “California Democrats are prepared to do what’s required…to ensure we have a strong candidate coming out of the primary to do what’s required in November.” The urgency stems from the fact that nine Democrats are vying to replace termed-out Governor Gavin Newsom, while only two prominent Republicans – Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco – are currently leading in polls.

California’s primary system allows the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, to proceed to the general election. This creates a scenario where a divided Democratic electorate could inadvertently elevate two Republicans, a prospect that has prompted calls for some candidates to withdraw from the race.

Hicks, while respectful of the candidates’ long-standing public service and compelling personal stories, emphasized the harsh realities of campaigning in a state with 23.1 million registered voters and expensive media markets. A viable campaign, he suggested, requires substantial financial resources.

While party leaders have refrained from publicly naming specific candidates who should exit the race, those lagging in the polls include state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former state Controller Betty Yee, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon.

Despite Democrats holding a significant voter registration advantage in California – no Republican has won statewide office since 2006 – the sprawling field of candidates and the lack of a clear front-runner have created an unexpectedly competitive race. Recent polling averages, according to Real Clear Politics, show Hilton and Bianco tied for first place with 15.5% support each, while Representative Eric Swalwell of Dublin, California, trails with 12.5%.

The situation echoes a 2012 congressional race in San Bernardino County, where a divided Democratic field allowed two Republicans to advance despite a Democratic voter registration edge. That race ultimately resulted in a victory for a Republican, and a subsequent win for Democrat Pete Aguilar in 2014.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, however, dismissed the fears of a Republican sweep, asserting, “That’s not going to happen…our diversity is our strength, our unity is our power.”

Nevertheless, a sense of urgency has permeated the party, with various factions uniting behind the belief that the field must shrink. Jodi Hicks, leader of Planned Parenthood’s California operations, expressed concern that two Republican gubernatorial candidates would be “nothing short of devastating,” particularly given the ongoing efforts to protect reproductive care funding.

Lorena Gonzalez, the leader of the California Federation of Labor Unions, indicated that the organization’s endorsement process, beginning Tuesday, will involve “honest discussions” with candidates about their viability. She anticipates some candidates will withdraw in the coming weeks.

The conversation extended to party delegates like Gregory Hutchins, who expressed a desire to see candidates demonstrate sufficient support to mount a successful campaign. “Am I concerned long term that [a top-two Republican runoff] could be a thing? Yes and no,” Hutchins said. “I’m not concerned that we’re not going to solve this problem before the primary, but I do think we need to start getting serious about, ‘We need to solve this problem soon.’”

Not all Democrats agree with the calls for candidates to drop out. Tim Paulson, a San Francisco Democrat supporting Yee, labeled the efforts “preemptive disqualification” and “scare tactics.”

The pressure to consolidate the Democratic field has already begun. RL Miller, chair of the state Democratic Party’s environmental caucus, publicly suggested that Yee should withdraw, arguing she needs to consider whether she is serving the party or acting selfishly. Yee, however, vehemently defended her right to remain in the race, stating, “I don’t do it out of selfishness, by any means…the race is wide open.”

Representative Swalwell reportedly urged Ian Calderon to exit the race, a claim Swalwell later denied. Calderon, acknowledging his limited resources and visibility, joked about consistently polling in the 1-3% range but maintained his commitment to reaching undecided voters.