Can Cyber Operations Be Deterred? What Wargames Reveal

International security is defined by a paradox: the most successful threats leave no physical evidence behind. When deterrence works, nothing happens. No missiles fly, no networks crash, and no troops cross borders.

The Invisibility of Success

This absence of action creates a profound evidentiary void. According to an analysis by War on the Rocks, this invisibility makes it nearly impossible for researchers to observe the exact moment a decision-maker chooses to abandon an attack after receiving a deterrent threat.

For security analysts, the problem is that deterrence is only visible when it fails. Failure is concrete. It is the crossing of a “red line,” the deployment of chemical weapons, or an invasion following a series of military exercises.

A Researcher’s Nightmare

This lack of empirical data is a “nightmare” for those attempting to quantify the success of security policies. The desired outcome for policymakers—stasis—removes the primary evidence needed for study.

The stakes are high. Observing the instant deterrence succeeds is described as arguably the most important observation in international security. Yet, because this moment is characterized by an action not taken, it remains hidden from traditional intelligence and historical analysis.

The Cyber Opacity Gap

Simulating the Adversary

Policymakers may view the absence of conflict as a victory.