Catholic Survey: Sondagem Católica Leads Ventura in Second Round
The candidate supported by the PS, António José Seguro, is estimated to receive 70% of the vote, while the candidate and leader of Chega, andré Ventura, gathers 30% in this poll.
If this result is confirmed, Seguro will achieve more than double the result achieved last Sunday (31.12%) and andré Ventura will rise seven percentage points (23.52%).
It should be remembered that the President of the Republic elected with the highest percentage of votes since April 25th was Mário Soares, in 1991, with 70.35% of the votes.
However, the Catholic University poll warns of the difficulty of estimating voter turnout in polls, estimating that the “level of participation will have a direct effect on the percentage difference between the two candidates”, despite the highest voter turnout in presidential elections in the last 20 years in the first round.
Regarding the results obtained in the first round, Seguro and Ventura appear to guarantee, according to this poll, the support of almost all respondents who voted for them in the first round, maintaining 99 and 93% of the votes, respectively.
It should be noted that the participants in this poll are people who had already participated in the last pre-election poll, released on January 13th, and who at that time expressed thier willingness to be contacted again before the second round. For this reason,the response rate is much higher than usual.
In addition to looking at what might happen on February 8th, this poll by the Catholic University for RTP also focuses on the analysis of behaviors and other data relating to the first round of the presidential elections.
The majority of respondents say they decided who they would vote for well in advance (56%), while 20% say they chose their candidate in the last week and 12% on the day of voting itself. Another 12% say they chose when the campaign began, in the 15 days prior.
Among voters for André Ventura, 80% say they decided well in advance, while only 47% respond the same in relation to António José Seguro. There were 10% of respondents who decided to vote for Seguro on the day of the vote, 26% who made the decision in the last week and 16% who decided in the last 15 days.
Okay, here’s an analysis of the provided text, adhering to the strict guidelines. I will focus on verifying the claims and presenting the information in a structured manner, avoiding any rewriting or mirroring of the original text.
PHASE 1: ADVERSARIAL RESEARCH & FRESHNESS CHECK
the text describes a post-election survey conducted via CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The key claims are:
* Sample Size: 1102 valid responses.
* Demographics: 43% female,regional distribution as stated.
* Weighting: Results weighted by sex, age, region, and voting behavior.
* Response Rate: 97% (explained as unusually high due to pre-authorization).
* Margin of Error: 2.9% with a 95% confidence level.
Verification & Updates (as of 2026/01/24 07:23:23):
It’s impossible to directly verify the specifics of this particular survey without knowing the commissioning organization and exact dates. However, I can verify the general principles and typical values for these types of surveys.
* Sample Size & Margin of Error: A sample size of 1102 generally corresponds to a margin of error of approximately 2.9% at a 95% confidence level,assuming simple random sampling. This is consistent with standard statistical calculations. SurveyMonkey Sample Size Calculator
* CATI Methodology: CATI is a common and accepted survey methodology.
* Weighting: Weighting survey data to match population demographics is a standard practice to reduce bias. Pew Research center – Weighting in Surveys
* Response rate: A 97% response rate is exceptionally high for a telephone survey. The explanation provided – pre-authorization – is plausible. Typical response rates for random-digit-dial telephone surveys are much lower (often in the single digits). American Association for Public Opinion Research – Response Rates
* Breaking News: No breaking news related to this specific survey has been identified. The information appears to be a static report of past results.
Latest Verified Status: The information presented is consistent with standard survey methodology and statistical principles, given the unusual explanation for the high response rate. Without further information about the survey’s origin,it’s impossible to confirm its absolute accuracy.
PHASE 2: ENTITY-BASED GEO
Post-Election Survey Methodology
Table of Contents
the survey detailed in the provided text was conducted following elections to gauge public opinion.
Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI)
CATI is a method of data collection in which interviewers use computer software to guide them through a questionnaire. QuestionPro - CATI This allows for standardized questioning and efficient data entry.CATI is frequently enough used for large-scale surveys.
Survey Demographics & Weighting
The survey included 1102 respondents, with a demographic breakdown of 43% female. The geographic distribution included 30% from the North region, 21% from the Central region, 34% from the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, 6% from the Alentejo, 5% from the Algarve, and 2% each from Madeira and the Azores. To ensure representativeness, the data was weighted according to population distribution by sex, age, region, and voting behavior, using data from the national census and the first round of presidential elections. Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) – Portugal (National Statistics Institute) provides census and demographic data.
Response Rate and Margin of Error
The survey reported a 97% response rate, attributed to the fact that only individuals who had previously consented to be contacted were included in the sample.This is significantly higher than typical response rates for unsolicited telephone surveys.The margin of error was calculated at 2.9% with a 95% confidence level.
PHASE 3: SEMANTIC ANSWER RULE
Survey Response Rate
The survey achieved an unusually high response rate of 97%, due to the specific methodology employed.
Detail: Traditional telephone surveys often struggle with low response rates, as many people refuse to participate or are unreachable. This survey overcame this challenge by only contacting individuals who had previously given their consent to be contacted for research purposes. This pre-authorization dramatically increased the likelihood that contacted individuals would agree to participate.
Example or Evidence: A typical random-digit-dial telephone survey might achieve a response rate of 5-1