CERAWeek 2026: Iran War & Global Oil Supply Fears Dominate Energy Conference

Oil Market Braces for Prolonged Disruption as Iran Conflict Intensifies

HOUSTON, TX – March 24, 2026 – The annual CERAWeek conference in Houston, a gathering of over 10,000 energy industry leaders and policymakers, is being dominated by concerns over the escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on global oil supplies. While the Trump administration attempts to reassure markets, industry executives express skepticism that disruptions will be short-lived.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright addressed attendees Monday, asserting that the disruptions to global energy flows are “temporary” and that Washington has implemented “pragmatic solutions,” including releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. He stated the U.S. Could release up to 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, potentially reaching three million. However, these assurances failed to quell anxieties among industry leaders, particularly given the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following retaliatory actions by Iran after U.S.-Israeli strikes.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth voiced concerns that current oil market prices do not adequately reflect the severity of supply constraints. “Physical prices and physical supplies would reflect a tighter market than I think the forward curve reflects,” Wirth said during a conference session. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil transport, is cutting off roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply, a situation the executive director of the International Energy Agency has warned is more severe than the oil crises of the 1970s.

The situation is particularly acute for companies with significant operations in the Gulf region. ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance revealed that his company has been forced to evacuate non-essential staff from Qatar and has requested protection for U.S. Assets in the region. “We’ve had to evacuate a number of our staff – our non-essential staff,” Lance said. “And, you look [at] what’s going to happen in the markets, it’s a little bit difficult to assess.”

Energy analyst Paul Sankey, drawing parallels to the 1973 oil crisis, described the current situation as “extremely grave.” He warned that the world is only beginning to experience the effects of energy shortages, predicting that the situation will worsen with each passing day. This assessment contrasts sharply with the administration’s claims of a temporary disruption.

While Texas-based companies could potentially benefit from higher oil prices, the benefits are not guaranteed. The Houston Chronicle reported that the threats to production in the Middle East could outweigh any gains from rising prices for global companies headquartered in Houston. Shell CEO Wael Sawan emphasized the need for long-term strategic planning, urging his team to consider the broader implications of the crisis for the future of the energy system.

The conflict’s impact extends beyond immediate supply concerns. Lance believes the conflict will likely raise the baseline price of oil even after a resolution is reached, reversing a trend of lower prices due to oversupply earlier in the year. He stated, “I think we’re all trying to assess what the long-term implications are and what sets the mid-cycle price coming out of this when the conflict is over with. And clearly, I think the floor probably has to rise, and the slope of the curve is probably going to increase.”

CERAWeek, traditionally a forum for assessing the year ahead in the energy industry, has been overshadowed by the geopolitical crisis. The conference underscores the fragility of global energy markets and the potential for significant disruption in a volatile geopolitical landscape. Attendees are now grappling with the possibility of a prolonged period of higher prices and supply uncertainty, forcing a reassessment of long-term energy strategies.