Characteristics of people who are likely to be forced to leave Trump 2.0 (November 12, 2024) – Excite News
*This report can also be viewed as a YouTube video.
Author Satoshi Yoshida explains.
Please watch from the link below.
“Characteristics of people who are likely to be forced to leave in Trump 2.0 (Tetsu Yoshida)”
Victory in all battlegrounds and start “Trump 2.0”
Mr. Trump won the US presidential election held on Tuesday, November 5th, and will return to the US presidency for the first time in four years.
He won all of the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona, and won 312 electoral votes, exceeding the 306 he won in his previous victory in 2016 (the condition for victory is 270). acquisition). It was a landslide victory, with the total number of votes exceeding Harris by around 3.7 million votes.
The world has now entered the second term of the Trump administration. Several media outlets have described this as “Trump 2.0.”
Figure: Impact of Trump 2.0 (from upstream to downstream)
Source: Created by the author
The United States has some kind of connection with most countries around the world. Possessing a large amount of assets such as funds, resources, human resources, and technology, the country has great influence over the countries with which it has connections. The personal connections, ideas, armaments, and prestige cultivated over a long history are among their important assets.
U.S. leaders have assets that few other countries have, and they have great influence around the world. The diagram above shows the flow of influence that the overall view of Trump 2.0 will have on the world.
In Trump 2.0, which is about to begin, how should market participants, including individual investors and market-related information providers, approach the market?
The world is mounted by Trump
Creating topics, increasing momentum, prioritizing one’s own country, and promoting negotiations can be said to be the keywords that represent the overall view of Trump 2.0. And they all contain light (joy) and darkness (sad).
Major domestic media said, “Trump 2.0 is a mixed blessing.” That’s exactly right.
Figure: “Big picture (example)” under Trump 2.0 environment
Source: Created by the author
Big mouths and exaggerated expressions related to creating topics, increased expectations for overall economic recovery related to improved momentum, increased concerns about local economic slowdown, strong revival of the United States related to prioritizing one’s own country, and fatigue in some related countries. , partial developments in the situation and the occurrence of other turmoil related to the promotion of negotiations will be at the upstream end of a wide range of events around the world for the next four years. Because Trump is the leader of the United States.
As shown in the diagram above, “The Impact of Trump 2.0 (from upstream to downstream),” these turmoil have an impact on major global themes such as world peace, order, the economy, democracy, and climate change.
The impact extends to each country’s price policies, peace negotiations, environmental measures, monetary policies, trade negotiations, etc. Furthermore, the impact extends to the stock prices, sales, prices, employment, etc. of individual companies in each country.
When you think about it this way, it seems as if the world is mounted on Mr. Trump. The characteristic of Trump 2.0 is that it does not simply influence events upstream and downstream through vertical lines, but because it is full of joy and sorrow, it influences not only bright events but also dark events behind them through horizontal lines. is.
Urgent need to move to learning zone
I feel that the world has entered Trump 2.0 and that the ideas I have been talking about for some time are finally becoming more and more desirable.
Since Trump 2.0 is a “happy and tragic” environment, it is highly likely that opposite elements will exist somewhere in the world at the same time. Considering that the world’s major stock indexes and the market prices of commodities (international products) consumed in countries around the world are influenced by events happening around the world, market participants who deal with these changes are , we must assume the opposite of the event of interest.
As you can see in the diagram below, moving from your comfort zone to your learning zone can help you get there.
Comfort zone is a state where safety and security are valued, a little boredom with low risk and return, a state of security and boredom that is fraught with a misunderstanding of safety and control, being distracted by others, making excuses and excuses, and having low self-esteem. , is a general term for a state of dependence and low trust where one is concerned about making mistakes.
The learning zone is a state of self-reliance and trust, in which one takes on challenges, solves problems, admits mistakes, acquires new skills, has high self-esteem, and also enjoys dreams and immerses in a sense of elation. It is a general term for a state where you discover purpose and meaning, set new goals, and are not limited by anyone or anything.
Diagram: People’s “two zones”
Source: Created by the author
In order to imagine the opposite of joy versus sadness (light versus darkness), we need to understand the event in front of us and clarify the meaning of the opposite. What is needed here is a larger vocabulary that defines the meaning of opposites and a readiness to accept opposite events.
Also, since many of the phenomena are invisible, abstract thinking is also essential. When coming up with abstract ideas, it is necessary to connect multiple phenomena and expand them into lines, surfaces, and three-dimensional objects.
If you think from your comfort zone, it will be difficult to understand the market in the Trump 2.0 environment, which has a “happy-happy” nature. I believe that the only way to analyze the market in the Trump environment 2.0 is by thinking in the learning zone.
We, the market participants, need to immediately move into the learning zone and put aside the “common sense” of the past that allowed us to grasp the situation in terms of “points”. Don’t rely on past common sense just because it’s easy to understand. The environment surrounding the market has changed with Trump’s return to office.
Figure: Under the Trump 2.0 environment, past common sense becomes easier to deny than ever before.
Source: Created by the author
Disassembly of gold’s “happily and joys”
From here, I will write about the joys and sorrows of the gold market. Here, we will assume that joy (bright) is the rising factor and non (dark) is the falling factor.
As you can see in the chart below, Trump could cause multiple upsides and multiple downsides at the same time.
Factors contributing to the rise include expanding Middle East risks, expanding U.S.-China risks, expectations for lower U.S. interest rates and accelerating dollar depreciation, stagnant democracy in the U.S., deepening global divisions, and increased central bank purchases. Factors contributing to the decline include the continued Trump trade (high stock prices and strong dollar), expectations for interest rate hikes (to eliminate inflation), expectations for a reduction in the war in Ukraine, and expectations for an end to the deterioration of the situation in East Asia.
It is possible that Mr. Trump will spread these “jokes and sorrows” almost simultaneously, putting both upward and downward pressure on the gold market. As a result, the gold (gold) market is caught between these upward and downward pressures, and while maintaining the current price level, it moves in the direction of the balance (if upward pressure overcomes downward pressure, it will rise, and downward pressure will rise). If upward pressure is overcome, there is a possibility of a fall).
Figure: Gold market environment under Trump 2.0 environment (an example)
Source: Created by the author
This figure also shows that in the Trump 2.0 environment, it is not possible to analyze only emergencies, only the inverse correlation with stocks, and only the inverse correlation with the dollar. Each of these common senses of the past is one of many, that is, a “point.” Analysis that focuses only on these is analysis in the comfort zone, and is not suitable for the Trump 2.0 environment, which requires analysis in the learning zone.
Short-term and long-term outlook for the gold market
The factors for the rise and fall mentioned in the previous chart “Gold market environment in the Trump 2.0 environment (an example)” are the situation in the Middle East, the situation in Ukraine, the situation in the US and China, East Asia, the US interest rate cut, the weak dollar, It can be summarized as the Trump trade, the stagnation of democracy in the United States, and the division of the world.
These can be classified into the following seven themes related to gold (eight for yen-denominated gold). Seven themes cover the three time axes that the author has proposed so far, which are essential when analyzing the gold market: short- to medium-term, medium-to-long-term, and very long-term.
I believe that these factors are simultaneously putting upward or downward pressure on the gold market, regardless of how large or small. An analysis method in which several pressures occur simultaneously can be said to be a learning zone analysis method.
Figure: Seven themes related to gold (as of November 2024)
Source: Created by the author
In the short to medium term, we believe that the price will remain at around $2,800 from the current level of $2,600 due to both upward and downward pressures caused by the three themes of “emergency mood,” “alternative assets,” and “alternative currencies.” The image is that it remains at a historically high level.
In the long term, we believe that the top price will increase, supported by upward pressure caused by the “invisible dilemma” such as the stagnation of democracy in the United States and the division of the world.
We will focus on the Liberal Democracy Index, which quantifies a large amount of information related to democracy in countries around the world, published by the V-Dem Institute (Sweden). This index is determined between 0 and 1, and the closer it is to 0, the less free and democratic the country is, and the closer it is to 1, the more free and democratic the country is. means.
During the Cold War between East and West, the United States strengthened its liberal and democratic stance, creating a clear difference from the former Soviet Union and countries that shared the same way of thinking as the former Soviet Union. During this period, the U.S. index experienced a notable increase. In 2001, the index temporarily declined due to the turmoil caused by the terrorist attacks, but it has since rebounded and remains at a high level of around 0.85 compared to the rest of the world.
Figure: US Liberal Democracy Index (1963-2023)
Source: Created by the author based on data from V-Dem Institute
However, the index plummeted to around 0.72 after Trump won the US presidential election in 2016. His victory is said to have been achieved by exploiting the divisions in the democratic game. This steep decline shows that his tyranny has seriously damaged American democracy.
Now, Trump 2.0 has begun, raising the possibility that the index will plummet again.
The stagnation and impasse in democracy in the United States, the Western superpower, may accelerate the decline in democracy around the world that has continued since around 2010. In turn, there is a risk that this will intensify various wars and increase the reluctance of non-Western countries to provide resources.
The escalation of war could lead to an increase in the state of emergency, and the increased reluctance to provide resources could lead to increased inflation. This trend is likely to continue for at least the next four years. Given this situation, there is a possibility that central banks and other entities will continue to buy with a long-term outlook. This means that upward pressure will continue to be placed on the gold price from a long-term perspective.
The gold market is currently at a historically high level. However, given the current situation, further increases are possible. By focusing on multiple materials at the same time, rather than looking at materials as “points,” we are able to draw up scenarios from a very long-term perspective.
Finally, returning to the title of this report, the characteristics of people who are likely to be forced to leave in Trump 2.0 are those who view events in terms of points, those who rely on past common sense, and those who emphasize ease of understanding. A person who is in the zone. Comfort zone analysis is not ready for Trump 2.0.
Various studies have been conducted around the world on ways to move from the comfort zone to the learning zone, but the methods I believe are most effective are reading, cooking, and using a computer rather than a smartphone. Things to do, have a world map next to your computer desk, and take time to be alone in a quiet environment.
The fact that the world has entered Trump 2.0 means that we now have a great opportunity to move into our comfort zone. Why not try the above methods on an ongoing basis, not only for investment and asset formation, but also for expanding your way of living? It’s simply a matter of expanding our thinking to accommodate Trump’s expanded worldview.
[参考]Examples of precious metal-related investment products that can be saved
Pure gold savings (can be purchased with credit card payment at our company)
Pure gold accumulation/spot purchase
Investment trusts (can be purchased with credit card payment or Rakuten points at our company. The following are NISA (small investment tax exemption system) growth investment quota compatible)
Pictet Gold (with currency hedge)
Mitsubishi UFJ Pure Gold Fund
Gold Fund (no currency hedge)
(Tetsu Yoshida)