China and Clinton’s America: Have They Learned Anything?

The diplomatic relationship between the United States and China during the administration of President Bill Clinton was characterized by significant volatility, internal policy instability, and a cycle of deterioration followed by temporary diplomatic recovery. Analysis from David M. Lampton indicates that 1997 specifically functioned as a roller coaster year for U.S.-China relations, reflecting broader systemic struggles within the American government to maintain a consistent strategic vision.

A central challenge for the Clinton administration was an internal inability to establish a cohesive China policy. The administration struggled to place necessary policy personnel in key positions and failed to articulate a clear vision capable of competing with the agendas promoted by various political and interest groups. These internal frictions contributed to intense public and congressional debates during the first part of 1997.

The Post-Tiananmen Trajectory

The instability of the Clinton era was rooted in the aftermath of the 1989 crackdown in Tiananmen Square. According to a Congressional Research Service report, U.S.-China relations remained troubled throughout the period from late 1992 to 1999, with policymakers showing little agreement on the direction of U.S. Policy in the post-Tiananmen era.

While President George Bush initially imposed sanctions on China following the 1989 events, he later attempted to protect the bilateral relationship despite heated opposition from Congress. This tension persisted into the Clinton administration, where relations were described as uneven during 1993 and 1994.

By 1995, the relationship began to deteriorate steadily. By the middle of 1995, U.S.-China relations had reached what was widely characterized as their lowest point since the establishment of formal diplomatic ties in 1979.

The 1996 Taiwan Crisis

Tensions between the two nations reached a zenith in March 1996. During this period, China conducted ballistic missile exercises off the coast of Taiwan, a move that prompted a direct military response from the United States.

The United States responded to the missile exercises by deploying two carrier battle groups into the area to signal its position and support for stability in the region.

Summitry and Subsequent Setbacks

Following the peak of tensions in 1996, there were positive developments centered on the resumption of high-level summitry. This diplomatic thaw included two major visits:

• The visit of China’s President Jiang Zemin to the United States in October 1997.
• The visit of President Clinton to China in June 1998.

Despite these high-profile meetings, the improvements were short-lived. Since 1998, the relationship has been marked more by setbacks and disappointments than by sustained progress.

The Congressional Research Service notes that the policies implemented by the administration led Chinese leaders to form a specific perception of American resolve. The report indicates that Chinese leadership believed they were free to take whatever actions they please without a meaningful response from the United States.