China-India Conflict: Analysis of Chinese Strategy by Emmanuel Lincot

Emmanuel Lincot, a director of research at the Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS), is analyzing China’s strategic positioning amid the ongoing conflict in Iran and the perceived difficulties faced by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Lincot, a specialist in Chinese affairs and author of the book Chine-Inde : la guerre des mondes, suggests that China’s approach to international crises is increasingly defined by a pursuit of strategic autonomy and a desire to reshape the global order to its advantage.

Strategic Autonomy and Technological Sovereignty

The framework for China’s current international posture was outlined during a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) symposium held in Beijing from October 20 to October 23, 2025. This closed-door meeting between leaders and experts served to establish the primary directions for the nation’s upcoming Five-Year Plan.

According to Lincot, China’s political, economic, and military priorities have converged under two guiding principles: strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty. These objectives are being pursued within a context of intensifying rivalry with the United States.

This strategic shift involves a process of economic recentering and the pursuit of military ambition, alongside a specific diplomacy focused on rare earths. Lincot notes that the political climate within the CCP has remained tense, characterized by tighter control over the senior hierarchy by Xi Jinping.

The India-China Rivalry

A central component of Lincot’s analysis of the war of the worlds is the persistent tension between China and India. The two nations have been engaged in a significant military standoff at their border in eastern Ladakh since April-May 2020.

The scale of the deployment remains high, with over 100,000 troops stationed on both sides of the border. This friction has evolved through several distinct phases since its inception:

• Between April and September 2020, both nations focused on crisis management and the reduction of tensions to avoid fatal clashes, such as the Galwan incident.
• From September 2020 to September 2022, negotiations focused on disengagement at four specific friction points in eastern Ladakh.
• From September 2022 to July 2024, a visible gap emerged in their positions. China indicated an unwillingness to disengage from Depsang and Demchok, treating these areas as legacy issues while suggesting both sides turn over a new leaf regarding the border situation.

This border dispute serves as a primary example of the broader geopolitical competition between the two Asian powers, as China seeks to expand its bilateral relationships while maintaining its territorial claims.

Beijing and the New World Order

China’s activities in Iran and its border disputes with India are part of a wider effort to position Beijing at the center of a new world order. This ambition was highlighted during the 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit, where China’s role in creating an alternative global structure was a central theme.

Lincot’s analysis indicates that China views the current instability in other regions, including the conflict in Iran, through the lens of its long-term domestic and international objectives. By maintaining strategic autonomy, Beijing aims to capitalize on the difficulties faced by Western powers, particularly the United States, to solidify its own influence.

The intersection of technological sovereignty, the management of border conflicts, and the strategic exploitation of geopolitical volatility suggests a calculated effort by Beijing to transition from a regional power to the center of a redesigned international system.