China Taiwan Attack: Global Order at Risk?

Escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait remain Beijing’s foremost external security concern for 2026, fueled by uncertainties surrounding the US midterm elections and the growing involvement of Japan, according to a prominent Chinese think tank. The Centre for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University identified this as a pivotal moment in the reshaping of China’s outer defense environment.

The CISS report, released on March 9, 2026, highlights a deepening fusion of economic security with geopolitics. It warns that an expansion of the US-led technology containment strategy and global narratives around a “second China shock” – linked to China’s trade surpluses – may intensify protectionism in the US, EU, and beyond.

A potential “three seas linkage” across the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea could lead to “an unprecedented level” of actions by the US and allies like Japan and the Philippines, creating pressures and “triggering chain reactions,” the report cautioned. This assessment comes as China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has stated unification with Taiwan is a prerequisite to the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” a goal he aims to achieve by 2049.

Taiwan’s Military Preparations and Shifting US Assessments

Meanwhile, Taiwan is bolstering its defense capabilities, having extended conscription mandates and increased defense spending. However, confidence in US military support in the event of a conflict with China has reportedly waned since Donald Trump took office. This shift in perception underscores the growing uncertainty surrounding the security landscape in the region.

Recent years have seen heightened concern in Western intelligence circles regarding the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, with some estimates suggesting a potential timeframe as early as next year. However, a recent US intelligence community assessment indicates that an imminent attack is unlikely. The assessment suggests Beijing prefers to achieve unification without resorting to force, recognizing the significant difficulties and risks associated with an amphibious assault, particularly if the US intervenes.

“Beijing almost certainly will consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, including PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the US will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.”

US Intelligence Community Threat Assessment

The updated analysis follows a period of heightened anticipation stemming from a 2021 assessment by Admiral Philip Davidson, who predicted China’s readiness to invade Taiwan by 2027. This timeframe, known as the “Davidson window,” prompted increased military reform efforts within Taiwan.

China’s Concerns Over US Abandonment of International Order

Beyond the immediate Taiwan situation, China is increasingly concerned about what it perceives as a US abandonment of the international order. The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) has highlighted this concern, suggesting it poses a significant risk. This concern is compounded by the potential for the US to shift its technological blockade against China from a “transactional shock” to a “systemic containment,” regardless of the outcome of the November midterm elections.

Taiwan has developed and fields the Hsiung Feng IIE land-attack cruise missile, capable of reaching targets deep within China, adding another layer of complexity to the regional security dynamics. The confluence of these factors – China’s assertive stance, Taiwan’s military preparations, shifting US assessments, and broader concerns about the international order – paints a complex and potentially volatile picture for 2026 and beyond.