China’s Ascent to Energy Dominance Challenges U.S. Strategy
Over the past two decades, China has undergone a dramatic transformation, evolving from a strategically vulnerable energy power reliant on imports of oil and gas into the world’s leading force in clean energy. Today, the nation produces the majority of wind turbines and solar panels globally, maintains control over nearly every stage of the battery supply chain, exports electric vehicles at prices that challenge Western automakers, and is rapidly constructing nuclear reactors. Despite not originating these technologies, China has become the dominant market maker in each sector.
This shift in power dynamics is not viewed the same way by the U.S. President Donald Trump, who defines energy dominance more narrowly, focusing on maximizing domestic fossil fuel production. Inspired by the U.S. Shale revolution and the oil crises of the 1970s, Trump established the National Energy Dominance Council in February 2025, aiming to expand the domestic fossil fuel industry and selectively support clean technologies.
However, this approach is increasingly seen as outdated. Global electricity demand is rising, fueled by the electrification of transportation, industry, and households, as well as the energy-intensive demands of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and advanced manufacturing. Even military systems are transitioning towards battery-powered technologies and data-heavy cyberwarfare.
While the United States remains largely self-reliant on its own energy sources, particularly natural gas for electricity generation and data centers, surging electricity demand is exposing vulnerabilities. The U.S. Electricity infrastructure is facing deficits, hindering progress in artificial general intelligence and creating dependence on Chinese-controlled supply chains for critical components like grid equipment, solar panels, and storage systems.
Beijing, in contrast, has strategically prepared for this landscape over nearly two decades, integrating energy and electrification into its national strength. This long-sighted strategy has fused manufacturing, technological innovation, and national security, with the consistent goal of building domestic power and reducing external dependence. China’s dominance in renewables now underpins its growing influence over global electrification, infrastructure, and industrial development, particularly in the Global South.
This energy dominance carries significant implications for the United States. These technologies and materials are critical for both global military and economic supremacy, and Beijing has demonstrated a willingness to leverage its technological and mineral-processing capabilities. China is also setting the pace, price, and scale of clean energy systems worldwide, diversifying economies away from oil. Today, China is indispensable to the global energy economy not because alternatives don’t exist, but because few competitors can match its scale and integrated approach.
A Strategic Ecosystem
Since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, China has prioritized reducing reliance on legacy industries and securing leadership in new energy technologies. This strategy, initially aimed at securing economic growth against external shocks, has evolved into a formula for economic success and power over the United States.
China’s success isn’t solely attributable to scale and subsidies, though those played a role. The country has integrated these industries into a tightly coordinated ecosystem capable of setting global standards. Locating manufacturing of raw materials, components, and finished products in close proximity—often within hours of each other—lowers costs, accelerates production, and allows Chinese firms to compete on both speed and price.
This supply chain density was the result of deliberate regional coordination, sustained infrastructure investment, and a willingness to tolerate excess capacity, anticipating a large global market. By treating clean energy manufacturing as a strategic industry, Beijing offered subsidies while simultaneously channeling capital into research, industrial parks, grid infrastructure, and workforce development. Innovation was scaled alongside production, allowing new technologies to move rapidly from the laboratory to the factory floor.
Exporting Influence Globally
This model transformed domestic deployment into global leverage. China’s massive buildout at home drove down domestic costs, and its export capacity ensured its technologies reached markets where demand was rising and capital was scarce. Chinese solar panels are approximately 30–40 percent cheaper than their Western equivalents, and Chinese electric vehicles cost half as much as American or European models.
This affordability makes Chinese technology particularly attractive to developing nations seeking reliable power quickly. Following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent spike in global natural gas prices, countries like India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka turned to Chinese-manufactured solar panels as a logical alternative. Once installed, the cost and supply of solar energy became fixed and domestic.
China has also moved beyond supplying individual components to delivering entire energy systems, including generation, transmission, storage, and grid modernization, often bundled with financing and long-term maintenance. In Kenya, Chinese firms have built solar farms and grid extensions. In Pakistan, Chinese-produced solar panels generate gigawatts of renewable power. Across Latin America, Chinese companies are modernizing transmission networks. Beijing already owns or operates more than ten percent of Brazil’s electricity infrastructure, with similar stakes expanding elsewhere.
China formalized this system-level approach with the adoption of the Energy Law in late 2024, treating energy as an integrated strategic domain. Energy security, industrial development, technological innovation, and market structure are now addressed within a unified legal and policy framework.
The Path Forward
The success of China’s energy strategy was evident in 2025, with renewed trade tensions highlighting U.S. Dependence on Chinese-controlled supply chains. While the U.S. Continued to celebrate its rising oil and gas exports, lower crude prices allowed China to amass substantial fuel reserves.
The United States must pair its natural resource endowment with sustained investment in innovation, manufacturing, and global partnerships to restore its technological advantage. Prioritizing fossil fuel exports over broader system development risks ceding the terrain on which twenty-first-century power is being built. Dominance will belong to the country that can supply both the energy that powers economies and the infrastructure that supports them.
