China’s Dilemma: North‌ Korea’s Troop Deployment to Russia Tests Bilateral⁢ Relations

Earlier this month, ‍China and​ North Korea celebrated the 75th anniversary of the ‌establishment of diplomatic ​relations between the two countries, reaffirming the close relationship that the two countries once described as “lips and‌ teeth.”

However, North Korea’s ‌decision to send thousands of troops to Russia⁤ to fight Ukraine will test relations ⁣between the two countries like never before. The relevant ⁤information was disclosed⁤ by⁤ U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin this week.

China has been⁣ frustrated by Pyongyang’s efforts to destabilize North Asia through its nuclear weapons program and occasional threats to annihilate South Korea. ⁣Now North Korea is fomenting war in ‌Europe, potentially deepening a broader confrontation over global order⁣ between the United States and its allies and an axis of anti-Western powers led by China and Russia.

China has ‌been trying to portray⁣ itself as ⁣a force for peace, contrasting ⁣itself with‌ the United States and accusing the United States of trying to start a new Cold War.⁢ That narrative⁢ is‌ now undermined by ⁢the prospect of soldiers from China’s only treaty ally fighting Western-backed forces on behalf of one of Beijing’s closest partners.

Analysts say another ⁤issue‌ China’s leadership may be concerned ‍about is Russia providing military technology to North Korea in ‍return​ for​ sending troops.​ That could embolden North‍ Korea to take more​ aggressive action against South ‍Korea and Japan,⁤ while​ at the same time weakening Beijing’s‌ ability to exert influence over the closed country despite ‌its reliance on China for ​trade and aid.

North​ Korea’s provocative behavior led to the trilateral ⁢security alliance signed at⁤ Camp David last year by the ⁣United​ States,⁣ Japan and South Korea. China ‍has likened the treaty⁤ to an Asian ‌version of NATO, making Beijing feel even more ⁣constrained ⁤and surrounded by the United States‌ and its allies.

China ⁤is now in a dilemma.‌ Since Russia invaded‍ Ukraine in 2022, China has deepened trade and diplomatic ties with Moscow while the West has isolated Russia. Weide‍ Cha, a⁤ professor of government and international affairs at Georgetown University and ⁢director of North⁢ Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in ⁢Washington, said Beijing may not know how to curb North Korea’s efforts to help the Kremlin.

“China⁢ is paralyzed and incompetent on this issue. ‌Although they indirectly support Russia’s efforts in ⁣the war, they​ will⁤ not⁣ be satisfied ​with North Korea,” Cheweide said. “It’s not ⁤going to be good for them ⁣in the ⁤short or long term.”

Questions will always⁢ remain about whether Beijing had advance knowledge ‍of Pyongyang’s plans, just as there has been speculation about whether ‌China had advance ‍knowledge‌ of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

China has not ‌commented⁢ on​ the presence of ​North Korean soldiers in⁣ Russia, saying only that it hopes all parties to the conflict will ‍de-escalate the situation and work‍ towards ⁤a political solution.

At a summit of emerging market ‍countries in Russia on Wednesday, China’s top leader Xi Jinping reiterated this ‌stance, calling on countries not to​ “add fuel to the fire.”

The United States says China can help end the fight by ⁣halting its support for Russia, including by halting the provision of dual-use technology — items​ such as microchips, chemicals⁣ or⁣ drones that can be ⁢used in civilian products or weapons — and Stop buying large​ amounts‌ of Russian oil.