Climate Change & Crop Yields: Wheat & Rice at Risk
- Despite record food production globally,a new study in Nature warns that climate change could drastically reduce yields of key staple crops.
- The study projects that under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, six key staple crops—including maize, wheat, rice, cassava, sorghum, and soybean—could see an 11.2% decline by the...
- Andrew Hultgren, an agriculture researcher at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, said, "It's not a mystery that climate change will affect our food production.
Climate Change Threatens Global Food Supplies
Despite record food production globally,a new study in Nature warns that climate change could drastically reduce yields of key staple crops. The research highlights a looming threat to food security, notably as the world’s population continues to grow.
The study projects that under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, six key staple crops—including maize, wheat, rice, cassava, sorghum, and soybean—could see an 11.2% decline by the end of the century compared to a world without warming.These crops provide two-thirds of humanity’s calories.
Andrew Hultgren, an agriculture researcher at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, said, “It’s not a mystery that climate change will affect our food production. That’s the most weather exposed sector in the economy.”
Farmers are already adapting by testing different crop varieties, adjusting planting schedules, and modifying fertilizer and water use. They are also investing in infrastructure like water reservoirs. However, the study questions whether these adaptations can keep pace wiht the rate of warming.

The research indicates that for every degree Celsius of warming, global food production is likely to decline by 120 calories per person per day. Hultgren noted that a 3-degree Celsius warmer future could result in a 13% loss in daily recommended per capita caloric consumption, equivalent to skipping breakfast.
While major food-producing regions may experience the largest declines, poorer countries will also be affected due to international trade and rising food prices. However,rice yields are expected to increase,benefiting regions like South and Southeast Asia.
In addition to yield declines, climate change can also alter the nutritional content of crops, perhaps leading to less nutritious food. Food production itself contributes considerably to greenhouse gas emissions, making it a critical area for climate action.
