Climate change is poised to significantly worsen the burden of malaria in Africa, potentially leading to over 500,000 additional deaths and more than 100 million additional cases by , according to new research published in Nature.
The study, conducted by researchers at The Kids Research Institute Australia and Curtin University, challenges previous assumptions about how climate change impacts malaria transmission. While changes in temperature and rainfall do play a role, the research highlights the disproportionate impact of extreme weather events – such as floods and cyclones – on malaria rates. These events disrupt essential malaria control efforts, leading to a surge in cases and fatalities.
Researchers analyzed 25 years of data encompassing climate patterns, malaria incidence, interventions aimed at controlling the disease, socioeconomic factors, and the frequency of extreme weather across the African continent. This comprehensive analysis allowed them to quantify both the ecological effects of climate change and the disruptive consequences of increasingly severe weather.
The modeling suggests that disruptions caused by extreme weather events could account for 79 percent of the additional malaria cases and a staggering 93 percent of the additional deaths expected across Africa. This finding underscores that the greatest climate-related threat to malaria control isn’t gradual shifts in climate, but rather the repeated damage inflicted on housing, health services, and existing interventions by extreme weather.
“Most previous studies have focused on how climate change affects mosquitoes and parasites in isolation,” explained Associate Professor Tasmin Symons, a member of the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) at The Kids Research Institute Australia and Curtin University. “What we show here is that the greatest climate threat to malaria control in Africa comes from disruption, when extreme weather repeatedly damages the housing, health services, and interventions that suppress transmission.”
Currently, malaria transmission is ecologically possible across much of Africa. However, the current disease burden is significantly lower than it could be due to improvements in housing, mosquito control measures, and access to effective treatment. The study indicates that the largest projected increases in malaria burden will occur when floods and cyclones damage homes, destroy bed nets, and interrupt access to timely diagnosis and treatment. These disruptions can persist for months, or even years, following an extreme weather event, leading to sustained increases in malaria cases.
The research emphasizes the need for climate-resilient malaria strategies. These include strengthening emergency preparedness, ensuring rapid recovery of health services after disasters, and developing malaria control tools that are less vulnerable to climate shocks. Building climate resilience directly into malaria policy and health system planning is crucial if global ambitions for malaria reduction and eventual eradication are to be achieved.
Professor Jonathan Carapetis AM, Executive Director of The Kids Research Institute Australia, highlighted the Institute’s commitment to research that informs policy and strengthens global health responses. “By bringing together long-term data, advanced modelling and a deep understanding of real-world conditions, this research gives policymakers and global health leaders the insights they need to plan more effective, climate-resilient malaria strategies,” he stated.
Professor Carlo Marra, Pro Vice-Chancellor of the Faculty of Health Sciences at Curtin University, underscored the global importance of the study in shaping our understanding of climate-related health risks. “This world-first modelling shows the power of combining decades of data with advanced analytical methods to reveal risks that would otherwise remain unknown,” he said. “By bringing climate, health and socioeconomic evidence together at scale, this research sets a new benchmark for global health modelling and provides decision-makers with the foresight needed to plan more resilient malaria control strategies in the face of climate change.”
The study was funded by the Gates Foundation and a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Investigator Grant, and conducted in collaboration with Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
