Colorado River: Reservoirs Plummet, Drought Deal Fails, Power Threat Looms

Colorado River Negotiations Collapse as Reservoirs Plummet, Threatening Power and Water Supplies

Negotiations among seven states to avert a crisis on the Colorado River have failed, leaving the future of water and power for 40 million people increasingly uncertain. The collapse in talks came as a new forecast revealed a grim outlook for the river’s major reservoirs, including a potential drop in Lake Powell to levels that would halt electricity generation at Glen Canyon Dam.

For the first time, the Bureau of Reclamation’s most probable forecast shows Lake Powell could fall below 3,490 feet in elevation by December of this year. Below that level, the turbines at Glen Canyon Dam would be unable to generate electricity for Utah and six other states. The forecast, released Friday, also projects the reservoir could reach 3,476 feet in March 2027 – the lowest level since the dam was filled, further limiting water releases.

The projections arrive amid an abnormally warm and dry winter, with forecasts now more than 20 feet lower than those released just last month. The current guidelines governing the river expire at the end of this year, and states have been struggling for months to agree on a new plan.

“I’m disappointed to say that in spite of nearly non-stop negotiations between the seven basin states over the last several months, we have been unable to reach agreement on a post-2026 operations plan,” Gene Shawcroft, Utah’s negotiator, said during a press conference Friday.

Utah and the other Upper Basin states – Colorado, New Mexico, and Wyoming – are now focusing on addressing what they see as the core problem: the declining inflow into Lake Powell. “We have lost one and a half million acre-feet of forecasted flow into Lake Powell over the last month, setting us up for one of the lowest inflow years in recent record,” Shawcroft added.

The Upper Basin states are collaborating with the Bureau of Reclamation on a plan to release water from Flaming Gorge and other reservoirs to bolster Lake Powell this summer, with a commitment to recover that water once the release operation concludes, according to Amy Haas, executive director of the Colorado River Authority of Utah.

Sticking Points Remain

A key point of contention centers on how and when to release water from upstream reservoirs to support Powell and Lake Mead. The states also disagree on how to share the burden of water cuts. The Lower Basin states – Arizona, California, and Nevada – have offered to reduce their water use by 27%, 10%, and nearly 17% respectively, according to a joint statement released Friday.

“Our stance remains firm and fair: all seven basin states must share in the responsibility of conservation,” the statement read.

Shawcroft expressed encouragement regarding the Lower Basin’s offers, calling them “tremendous.” However, disagreements persist over whether the Upper Basin should be compelled to make mandatory cuts. The Lower Basin insists on enforceable conservation measures from the Upper Basin, while Upper Basin representatives argue that such cuts are not feasible due to state water laws and the unique hydrological conditions upstream of Lake Powell.

“We may not have the ability in Utah and in the Upper Basin to mandatorily cut folks off, but mandatory cuts come in the form of hydrology,” Haas explained. “We just saw this last year: we had water rights, very senior water rights in the state of Utah dating back to the 1860s, get cut off simply because there wasn’t available supply.”

John Entsminger, Nevada’s negotiator, countered that “the river doesn’t care about legal interpretations, political comfort zones, or arguments about why a state can’t do more to conserve. Posturing doesn’t fill the taps.”

What Happens Next?

With the current operating guidelines set to expire at the end of the year, the situation is becoming increasingly urgent. If the states fail to reach a consensus, the federal government may be forced to impose a solution.

“It’s disappointing,” said Anne Castle, senior fellow at University of Colorado Law School’s Getches-Wilkinson Center. “The states are the ones that have the ability to craft an agreement that would make for a sustainable river—an operation that balances supply and demand. The federal government has some ability to move toward that, but their authority is limited. They can’t do as much as the states could do together, and for the 40 million people that depend on this river, we would all be benefited by a seven-state agreement.”

The Bureau of Reclamation released a draft environmental impact statement last month outlining several alternatives. If an agreement is reached, the bureau will incorporate it as the preferred alternative. Otherwise, the agency may implement the “basic coordination alternative,” which experts warn is insufficient to protect the system during dry years.

“In below-average or dry years, the basic coordination alternative doesn’t do nearly enough to protect the system and you’re facing catastrophic levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead,” said John Berggren, policy manager with the Western Resource Advocates. “It would not be able to handle this type of year going forward.”

Compact Compliance and Potential Litigation

The states had hoped to reach a deal that would include a pledge to avoid lawsuits over compliance with the Colorado River Compact, a century-old agreement dictating water allocations. However, Utah, Arizona, and Colorado have already begun preparing for potential litigation.

“We are prepared to defend our interests if necessary, but our first choice is collaboration,” said Utah Governor Spencer Cox in a statement Friday.

The river’s ten-year flow is projected to fall below the compact requirement this year, potentially triggering legal challenges. Brenda Burman, general manager of the Central Arizona Project, stated last week that the river “may breach the compact in 2026 and almost certainly it will be breached in 2027.”

With winter snowpack across the Upper Colorado River Basin at record lows, the outlook remains bleak. “Warm temperatures have significantly impacted the amount of snow currently being observed,” said Brenda Alcorn, a forecaster with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Lake Powell’s water supply is currently forecasted to be 38% of average this summer.

“I’ve been looking at the forecasts… and it’s dismal,” Castle said. “One would think it would put more pressure on coming to an agreement, but it hasn’t succeeded in doing that, obviously—not yet.”