Commercial Real Estate Deal Volume Drops – 2 Year Low
- October 2025 marked the first month of negative year-over-year transaction volume growth in commercial real estate (CRE) since the recovery began in early 2024, according to exclusive...
- The decline in CRE transaction volume is deeply intertwined with interest rate policy.
- Within the top 50 CRE deals tracked by Moody's, industrial and multifamily properties led the way.
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Commercial Real Estate Transaction Volume Declines in October 2025
Table of Contents
What Happened: October 2025 CRE Sales Dip
October 2025 marked the first month of negative year-over-year transaction volume growth in commercial real estate (CRE) since the recovery began in early 2024, according to exclusive data from Moody’s provided to CNBC’s Property Play. While still active, with $24.4 billion in sales (roughly 70% of October 2019 levels), the slowdown signals a stall in the CRE market’s recovery. Total dollar volume remains higher than in 2024, but growth momentum has significantly decelerated.
Why It matters: The Interest Rate connection
The decline in CRE transaction volume is deeply intertwined with interest rate policy. After a period of momentum following the pandemic, the market has faced headwinds. Persistently high interest rates and ongoing economic and policy uncertainty are creating a stalemate between buyers and sellers, lengthening the U-shaped recovery from 2023 lows.
sector Performance: Industrial and Multifamily Lead
Within the top 50 CRE deals tracked by Moody’s, industrial and multifamily properties led the way. Further details on specific sector performance are needed to fully understand the nuances of the market shift.
Data Snapshot: Top 50 CRE Sales
| Metric | October 2025 | October 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Total sales Volume | $24.4 Billion | $34.86 Billion (approx.) |
| Year-over-Year Growth | Negative | N/A |
Who is Affected?
The slowdown impacts a wide range of stakeholders:
- Investors: Both institutional and individual investors face challenges in finding profitable opportunities.
- Sellers: May need to adjust pricing expectations or delay sales.
- Lenders: Increased risk of loan defaults and reduced lending activity.
- Developers: Potential delays or cancellations of new projects.
Timeline of the Recovery
* Early 2024: CRE transaction volume began to recover following the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes.
* Late 2024: Deal volume approached pre-COVID levels.
* October 2025: First month of negative year-over-year transaction volume growth.
frequently Asked Questions
Next steps & outlook
The market is likely to remain in a stalemate until there is greater clarity on the future path of interest rates and economic conditions.Monitoring Moody’s data and other market indicators will be crucial for investors and industry professionals.