Coronavirus Resurgence: Fall & Winter COVID-19 Concerns

As of February 3, 2026, the United States is experiencing varying trends in the spread of COVID-19, influenza, and RSV, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The CDC’s Center for Forecasting and Analysis (CFA) and the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD) are tracking these trends using a metric called Rt, the time-varying reproductive number, which indicates whether infections are growing or declining.

COVID-19 Trends

Currently, COVID-19 infections are estimated to be growing or likely growing in February 3, 2026 in 13 states. In contrast, infections are declining or likely declining in 9 states, while 25 states are experiencing no significant change. These estimates are based on data from incident emergency department (ED) visits. It’s important to note that Rt values above 1 indicate epidemic growth. More detailed data, including previous estimates, can be found on data.cdc.gov.

A surge in COVID-19 cases was also observed earlier, with UC Davis Health reporting a noticeable increase in infections as of September 2025. This mirrored a nationwide trend. A new COVID vaccine was becoming available in pharmacies and clinics around that time, prompting questions about eligibility. According to UC Davis Health’s Chief of Infectious Diseases, Stuart Cohen, the surge was, in part, being traced to children bringing the virus home from school, even mild cases were contributing to spread, particularly among vulnerable populations.

The FDA had adjusted eligibility criteria for the 2025-26 COVID vaccine, limiting it to adults aged 65 and older, and individuals aged 6 months and older with at least one high-risk health condition, such as asthma, diabetes, obesity, or immunocompromising conditions. However, guidance varied between federal and state levels, with the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) continuing to recommend the vaccine for all individuals aged 6 months and older, regardless of risk status. Clarity on vaccine guidance was expected following a CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices meeting in September 2025.

Influenza Trends

Influenza infections are currently growing or likely growing in 9 states, declining or likely declining in 15 states, and remaining stable in 23 states, as of February 3, 2026. Like COVID-19 data, these estimates are based on emergency department visit data and are available on data.cdc.gov.

RSV Trends

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is showing a different pattern, with infections growing or likely growing in 24 states. Declining or likely declining infections are observed in 11 states, and 12 states are experiencing no change. These trends are also based on emergency department visit data as of February 3, 2026, and further information is available on data.cdc.gov.

Understanding Rt and Surveillance

The CDC emphasizes that Rt is a measure of transmission and does not reflect the overall burden of disease. It should be used in conjunction with other surveillance metrics, such as the percentage of emergency department visits, to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the current epidemic situation. The CDC provides a map visualizing Rt values for each state, allowing public health practitioners to quickly assess the direction of infections and prepare appropriate responses.

Public health measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have had a notable impact on the circulation of other seasonal respiratory viruses, including influenza and RSV. A study published in 2021 examined the impact of the pandemic on these viruses in Canada, highlighting how measures to mitigate COVID-19 spread also affected the patterns of other respiratory illnesses.

The CDC continues to monitor these trends closely and provide updated information to the public and healthcare professionals. Individuals are encouraged to stay informed about the latest recommendations and take appropriate precautions to protect themselves and others.