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Pakistan’s Cotton Production shows Slight Increase, Amidst Concerns Over Yield Estimates and Market Disruptions
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Cotton arrivals in Pakistan have seen a marginal increase as of mid-December, but meaningful discrepancies in yield projections and disruptions to market operations are raising concerns among stakeholders.
Cotton Arrivals and Regional Performance
By December 15,2025,a total of 5.3 million bales of cotton had arrived at ginning factories across Pakistan, representing a slight one percent increase compared to the same period last year. Though, this overall increase masks a significant divergence in performance between the two major cotton-producing provinces.
According to data from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA),Sindh province has outperformed Punjab,despite Punjab having a larger planted acreage. Specifically, 2.453 million bales reached ginning factories in Punjab, a five percent decrease from the previous year. In contrast, Sindh recorded 2.848 million bales, showing a three percent increase. Textile mills have been the primary buyers, purchasing 4.491 million bales, while exporters accounted for 175,000 bales.
Concerns Over Yield Projections
Ihsan-ul-Haq, Chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, has publicly questioned the yield figures projected by the Fiber Commissioner’s Office (FCA).The FCA estimated per-acre cotton productivity at 9.80 bales in Punjab and 15.84 bales in Sindh for the current year. Haq expressed skepticism, stating, “It is incomprehensible how Sindh’s per-acre cotton yield can be 61 percent higher than Punjab’s.”
Haq criticized the FCA for a pattern of issuing unrealistic national cotton production estimates. ”These impractical targets are never achieved, yet the FCA continues to release inflated figures every year, creating serious difficulties for cotton stakeholders in formulating effective strategies,” he said. The consistent discrepancy between projected and actual yields hinders informed decision-making for farmers, ginners, and textile manufacturers alike.
Market Disruption: Karachi Cotton Association Closure
Adding to the challenges facing the cotton sector, the Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) has been unable to issue cotton spot rates as its building was sealed by the Evacuee property Trust Board with the assistance of the Federal Inquiry Agency last Friday. Dawn reported on the sealing of the KCA building, citing ongoing investigations.
The suspension of spot rate announcements creates uncertainty in the market, making it challenging for buyers and sellers to agree on prices and potentially disrupting trading activity. The KCA plays a crucial role in providing price clarity, and its closure has immediate implications for the entire cotton supply chain.
Looking Ahead: Implications and Potential Solutions
The combination of modest overall production increases, regional disparities, questionable yield projections, and market disruptions presents a complex picture for Pakistan’s cotton industry.Addressing these challenges will require a multi
