Countdown to the White House: Who Will Be America’s Next Leader

The election to elect the 47th President of the United States began across the United States on the 5th.

The earliest polling place closes at 6 PM Eastern Time, and the latest polling place closes at 1 AM the next day.

Afterwards, the vote counting will proceed and the outline of the winner will be revealed. Considering recent precedents in presidential elections, it could be as early as the night of the same day or as late as the next day (the 6th).

However, most media predict that it may be delayed compared to previous years.

This is because this election is expected to be a very close race between Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump.

◾️ Key to counting votes in competitive states

Therefore, it is expected that we will know who the winner is only after the counting of votes in the ‘7 major competing states’ is completed.

However, as vote counting methods vary from state to state, it is unclear exactly when the final results will be released.

It is expected to take as little as a few days or as long as close to two weeks.

Among the swing states, the Washington Post (WP) reported that North Carolina and Wisconsin are likely to have their vote counting results released on election night.

It was reported that vote counting in Georgia and Michigan could also be completed within the next day, the 6th.

However, it is known that it will likely take at least a few days in three places, including Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada.

In the 2020 presidential election, Pennsylvania and Nevada released their vote counting results four days after November 3, the official election day.

It was also at this time that then-Democratic candidate Joe Biden began to be referred to as the president-elect.

In particular, Pennsylvania is the largest swing state with 19 electoral college members, so it can determine the overall outcome of the presidential election.

◾️ There may be a recount in some areas

If the actual vote count results are revealed to be closely contested, it appears that a recount may continue in each region.

In Pennsylvania, the largest swing state, regulations allow for a recount if the difference in vote percentage between the winner and loser is less than 0.5%p.

During the 2020 presidential election, the difference in vote percentage between then-Democratic candidate Biden and then-President Trump, the Republican candidate, was 1.1%p.

◾️ Chances of winning ‘56 to 43’

In its last update on election day (the 5th), the economist, who has proposed a model to predict election results, put Vice President Harris’s chances of winning at 56% and candidate Trump’s chances at 43%.

The previous day (the 4th), it was a very close race with Vice President Harris at 50% and Trump at 49%, but within a day, Vice President Harris jumped by 6% points, and candidate Trump fell by 6% points.

Considering the trend at the end of the presidential election, Vice President Harris’ short-term upward trend continued.

Vice President Harris rose 12%p over the past week, while candidate Trump fell 12%p during the same period.

◾️Harris ahead of prediction of securing the Electoral College

Accordingly, the median number of electoral votes expected to be obtained was 276, with Vice President Harris ahead of candidate Trump, who remained at 262.

To win the US presidential election, which is an indirect election, you must secure 270 out of 538 electoral votes.

In this prediction model, Vice President Harris has 6 more candidates than the standard for election, and candidate Trump has 8 candidates.

The number of electoral votes varies from state to state, but usually the person with the most votes in each state takes all of the electoral votes allocated to that state.

◾️ If there is a tie, the House of Representatives elects the president.

If the two parties’ candidates secure an equal number of electoral votes (269), the House of Representatives has the power to decide the next president.

Lawmakers hold a contingent election to elect the president and vice president, and since the Republican Party holds a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, it is almost certain that the Republican candidate will win.

◾️ 60th US presidential election

This is the 60th presidential election in the United States.

Since the American people elected George Washington as the first president in the first presidential election held between 1788 and 1789, they have elected 45 presidents, including the current 46th president, Joe Biden, who was elected in 2020.

Former President Grover Cleveland served non-renewable terms as the 22nd and 24th presidents.

Candidate Trump, who served as the 45th president, is seeking to be elected as the 47th president.

Vice President Harris hopes to become the first female president in U.S. history.

VOA News