Terrorism in South and Southeast Asia is exhibiting a complex and evolving character, prompting renewed concern among regional security analysts. A recent report by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) highlights a resurgence of extremist violence, encompassing lone-wolf attacks, recruitment by transnational jihadist networks, and the reactivation of local militant groups – all exacerbated by political instability and existing social divisions.
The ORF report, titled The Enduring Challenges of Counterterrorism: Regional Perspectives from Southeast and South Asia, underscores a critical shift in the threat landscape. While large-scale attacks reminiscent of those seen in the early 2000s have become less frequent, the threat remains consistent and has adapted to new realities. The October 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel, and the subsequent war in Gaza, have served to bring terrorism back into sharp focus as a security crisis capable of derailing positive geopolitical developments, including initiatives like the Abraham Accords and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
The interconnectedness of extremist movements across South and Southeast Asia is a key concern. Groups are increasingly adept at drawing on local grievances while simultaneously aligning with global jihadist narratives, creating a blurred line between domestic and transnational threats. This convergence demands a more robust regional approach, emphasizing intelligence sharing and community-based counter-radicalisation efforts that address the underlying ideological and socio-economic factors driving extremism.
Beyond traditional forms of terrorism, the report identifies the growing significance of cyberterrorism and online radicalisation. Extremist groups are leveraging digital spaces for recruitment, financing, propaganda dissemination, and operational coordination, effectively extending their reach beyond geographical boundaries. This presents a new layer of complexity, requiring a concerted effort to strengthen cyber resilience and counter online extremism.
The challenges are particularly acute given the porous borders and complex political landscapes that characterize much of South Asia. As noted in a 2009 study on regional counterterrorism cooperation, the transnational dimension of the threat – vividly illustrated by the 2008 Mumbai attacks – necessitates a collaborative approach to intelligence sharing and law enforcement. However, achieving such cooperation remains difficult, hampered by historical tensions and competing national interests.
The rise of lone-wolf attacks and the resurgence of local extremist networks are reshaping the nature of terrorism in the region, making threats more difficult to predict and prevent. These developments are prompting a re-evaluation of existing counterterrorism strategies, with a greater emphasis on proactive measures to identify and disrupt radicalisation pathways.
The intersection of transnational jihadist narratives with local grievances is another critical area of concern. Governments and civil society actors must work together to counter these overlapping sources of radicalisation, addressing both the ideological drivers of extremism and the socio-economic conditions that make individuals vulnerable to recruitment. This requires a nuanced understanding of local contexts and a commitment to inclusive governance.
Addressing the cyber dimension of terrorism is paramount. Public-private partnerships, technology firms, and financial institutions all have a role to play in strengthening cyber resilience and countering online extremism. However, regional governments face the delicate task of balancing cybersecurity measures with the protection of civil liberties. Integrating cyber resilience into broader counterterrorism strategies is essential, but must be done in a way that respects fundamental rights and freedoms.
The need for regional cooperation is underscored by the fact that South Asia remains vulnerable to terrorism due to its complex historical, political, and socio-economic landscape. Factors such as state sponsorship, porous borders, and weak governance contribute to the prevalence of extremist activities. Nepal, for example, experienced its own period of insurgency and terrorism in the late 20th century, and recognizes the importance of not remaining isolated from regional and global efforts to combat extremism.
The United Nations Counter-Terrorism Office could play a crucial role in supporting regional efforts by offering tailored capacity-building programs. A comprehensive approach that includes regional cooperation, governance reforms, and international assistance is essential to address the enduring challenges of counterterrorism in South and Southeast Asia and establish long-term stability and security. The ORF’s recent dialogue series aims to unpack these insights and explore practical avenues for policy collaboration between nations in both regions.
Key questions being addressed in the ongoing dialogue series include how recent patterns of lone-wolf attacks and the resurgence of local extremist networks are reshaping the nature of terrorism, the extent to which transnational narratives intersect with local grievances, and the role of public-private partnerships in strengthening cyber resilience. These discussions are intended to inform policy recommendations and foster a more coordinated and effective regional response to the evolving threat of terrorism.
