CPO Translucent RM4,500 – Highest in 5 Months

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Daily Market Performance 🚀

IHSG	Foreign Flow	USD / ID Courses	Gold
7.863 -0,45%	+Rp863 billion	16.245 +0,53%	3.378 +0,31%

Oil	Coal	CPO	Nickel
65,3 -1,03%	113,0 +0,80%	4.520 -0,86%	15.151 -0,07%

👋 Stockbitor!

CPO prices for the November 2025 contract rose +0.2% from the closing Friday (8/15) to the level 4,520 Ringgit Malaysia per ton as of Tuesday (8/19), marked the increase +6,4% MTD as well as level highest in the last 5 months. This increase is mainly driven by: 1) Increased demand from India and China; and 2) tightening supply from Indonesia.

Manzoor Trading Director, Abdul Hameed, say that the increase in CPO prices Encouraged by strong requests from China and re -pending by India ahead of the Diwali festival in October 2025. From the supply side, the increase in CPO prices was supported by tightening supply from Indonesia along with the planned implementation of a higher biodiesel mixture (B50) and foreclosure illegal oil palm land.

In the short term, Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) estimates Global CPO prices can survive above 4,300 Malaysian ringgit per tonsupported by the reduced supply of CPO exports and soybean oil – as the CPO substitution – as the needs of the biodiesel program in Indonesia, USA, and Brazil. MPOB projects that The B50 program will encourage additional CPO demand in Indonesia equal to 3 million tons per year in 2026, greater than the total increase in global supply which is predicted to only grow 1.6 million tons.

Meanwhile, US soybean oil consumption for biodiesel is projected to rise +17% from 6 million tons in 2024 to 7 million tons in 2026, which will mark for the first time about 50% of US soybean oil production is allocated to biodiesel needs. In addition, Brazil has increased the obligation to mix biodiesel from 14% to 15% per August 1, 2025.

Key Takeaway

The adequacy of palm funds to fund (subsidize) the biodiesel program is something that needs to be observed by investors, in our opinion. Director General at Ministry of Energy and Mineral ResourcesL Litting for Desult. say that it is in the middle of asking for additional allocation of funds from the Oil Palm Plantation Fund Management Agencyon the grounds that the further disparity of prices between CPO products and diesel or diesel is the raw material for biodiesel.

CPO price strengthening has pushed rally The price of the shares of the Palm Oil issuer in MTD, such as DSNG (+15.6%), TAPG (+5.9%), AALI (+8.8%), SGRO (+33.3%), and BWPT (+14%).

🏦 BBCA 7M25: Bank Net Profit Only +11% Yoy

1. $ BBCA: Bank Central Asia note net profit bank only equal to 4.8 trillion rupiah in July 2025 (-2% YoY, +2% MoM). These results make a net profit bank only for 7m25 reach 34.7 trillion rupiah (+11% YoY), equivalent 60% Estimated Net Profit Consolidation 2025F Consensus (Vs. 7M24: 57% Realization of Consolidated Net Profit 2024). In July 2025, a decrease in net profit was caused by an increase in tax expenses ( +24% yoy, +20% mom) and provision expenses ( +233% yoy, +84% mom), amid the growth of pre -pro -corruption profit (PPOP) of +7% yoy and +8% mom. For 7m25net profit growth is driven by PPOP hike solid which is +12% YoYthough provision burden naik +65% YoY. Solid PPOP for 7M25 Supported by Non -Interest Income (Non -II) which grows +18% YoYsementara Net Interest Income (So) only grows +6% yoy in the middle Credit growth +11% yoy.
2. $PANI: Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua note Net profit of 236 billion rupiah on 2q25 (+45% YoY, + 377%), until the profit is clean For 1H25 flat at the level of 286 billion rupiah (+0,3% YoY). Net profit growth at 2Q25 is supported by revenue growth ( +46% yoy, +69% QoQ) and gross profit margins that increase to 60.1% (vs. 2Q24: 53.9%, 1Q25: 56.2%). Meanwhile, Pani’s subsidiary, Build Successful Kosambi ($CBDK), note Net profit of 387 billion rupiah at 2Q25 (+100% YoY, + 198%), until the profit is clean For 1H25 grows into 517 billion rupiah (+26% YoY). Net profit growth at 2Q25 is supported by revenue growth ( +66% yoy, +80% qoq) and the expansion of gross profit margin to 63.4% (vs. 2q24: 57.0%, 1q25: 55.9%).
3. $ Pgeo: Fortunate report that PT PLN Indonesia Power and Pertamina Geothermal Energy will form a consortium to work on geothermal power plants (PLTP). This cooperation is a follow -up step after both signing head of agreement to work on the project PLTP Ulubelu Binary Unit with a capacity of 30 MW in Lampung and PLTP Lahendong Binary Unit with a capacity of 15 MW in North Sulawesi. In addition to the two PLTP projects, head of agreement also contains an agreement between the two parties to Exploring the development of geothermal energy in various working areaswith the total indicative capacity of reaching 530 MW.
4. $ Pgas: State gas company say that Gas pressure in the pipeline starts to stabilize with additional gas supply to fill gas stock in the pipeline. PGAS also mentioned that Other additional gas supply certainty has also been confirmed and will be used to increase operational reliability. PreviouslyPGAS reported a decrease in gas distribution to several customers in the West Java region and parts of Sumatra unplanned shutdown from gas suppliers existing.
5. $ Ammn: Director Even Miseral International, Bring You, Selling 40 million shares of AMMN with an average price 8,595 rupiah per sheet on August 15, 2025. Total transaction value reached ~ 343.8 billion rupiah. After this transactionthe portion of direct ownership of Irwin Ka Pui Wan in AMMN dropped from 0.109% to 0.054%.

Top Gainer 🔥

$SCMA	$ EMTK	$ Asia	$DSNG
+21,37%	+13,09%	+9,95%	+6,71%

Top Loser 🤕

$ Kpig	$ Pgeo	$ Sharp	$ Antm
-5,88%	-3,30%	-3,17%	-3,10%

🔥 Another hot thing you need to know …

1. Konsensus ekonom that was surveyed by Reuters estimate Bank Indonesia will maintain the BI Rate interest rate at 5.25% In the Board of Governor’s meeting tomorrow, Wednesday (8/20).
2. Director General at the Ministry of Finance, Febrio Nathan Kacaribu, say on Friday (8/15) that there is no change in the policy of value added tax rates (PPN) in 2026. The Ministry of Finance ensures that the tariff VAT of 12% remains valid for luxury goodswhile the tariff for general goods or goods that are not classified as luxury are still 11%. In RAPBN 2026 itself, the government is targeting tax revenue to grow +13% yoy compared to outlook APBN 2025. The target is based on the implementation of tax reform and projection of the level of domestic consumption that remains solid.
3. Bloomberg report that A number of analysts consider Indonesia to risk beyond the target deficit of the 2026 Draft State Budget at the 2.48% level of GDP Along with the absence of plans for new taxation steps in the middle of the Prabowo Subianto President’s populist program. The government itself targets state revenue equal to 3,148 trillion rupiah in the 2026 RAPBNjump +10% YoY from outlook APBN 2025, which is supported by the increase tax revenue target +13% yoy. According to the Fitch Solutions Research Unit, BMI, the target of state revenue is seen too optimistic, Given the lack of new taxation stepswhich is likely to result in the government beyond the fiscal deficit target in 2026. Meanwhile, Maybank maintains the projection of Indonesia’s fiscal deficit in 2026 at 2.9% of GDP, which is based on a more moderate state revenue growth projection of +7% yoy or approaching nominal GDP growth.
4. Chairperson of the Indonesian Ceramic Association, Edy Suyanto, say that The ceramic industry in West Java has decreased gas allocation with certain natural gas prices (HGBT) From the level of 60% to 48% along with the restrictions imposed by the state gas company ($ Pgas). Edy said that this restriction would Valid on 13-31 August 2025with the use above the quota will be charged surcharge equal to 14.8 US dollars per mmbtu.
5. Operator Pure Cableindo ($KBLM), PT Sibalec, Buy ~ 69.9 million KBLM shares with an average price 386.36 rupiah per sheet on August 14, 2025. Total transaction value reached ~ 27 billion rupiah. After this transactionthe portion of PT Sibalec’s direct ownership in KBLM rose from 34.03% to 40.27%.

🆚 Pullback vs Breakout: Entry strategy that determines trading results

“Wait for confirmation, for example the close candle above/below the important level, or there is a supporting volume.” – Jhonwong

Interesting quote from the stockbit community this week

In practice tradingthere are two strategies entry commonly used. Pullback Trade done when the price touches the area support then bounce back, giving an opportunity to enter at relatively lower prices with a more measurable risk – this strategy is generally chosen by trader more conservative. On the contrary, Breakout Trade applied when prices penetrate resistance which is significant with confirmation, for example through closing candle above the key level or accompanied by a surge in volume; This strategy is usually used by trader who want to capture the momentum of the movement faster. Simply, pullback emphasize the principle of buying at a low price, whereas breakout Oriented to pursue momentum after an important level was successfully penetrated. To understand more in the application of these two strategies and practical examples, read the full writing on here.

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