Cuba: From Obama’s Hope to Trump’s Embargo

Cuba’s economic crisis has deepened significantly since the United States reinstated stringent oil sanctions in 2025, reversing the limited openings pursued during the Obama administration and plunging the island into its worst fuel shortage in decades.

The deterioration follows President Donald Trump’s decision in early 2025 to reimpose a near-total embargo on Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba, a lifeline that had sustained the country’s power grid, transportation, and industrial output since 2020. The move, announced by the White House on February 10, 2025, cited Cuba’s continued support for Nicolás Maduro’s government in Venezuela as justification for revoking sanctions waivers previously granted under President Joe Biden.

Before the embargo, Cuba received approximately 50,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude per day through arrangements facilitated by Caracas and mediated by political allies. That flow has now dropped to fewer than 5,000 barrels daily, according to data from the Cuban Ministry of Energy and Mines and confirmed by tanker tracking reports from Refinitiv and Kpler in March and April 2025.

The immediate consequence has been a near-collapse of Cuba’s electrical infrastructure. Rolling blackouts now affect up to 18 hours per day in many provinces, with Havana experiencing outages averaging 14 hours daily, according to the state utility Unión Eléctrica. In Santiago de Cuba and Las Tunas, residents report power available for fewer than six hours per day, disrupting water pumping, refrigeration, and medical equipment operation.

Fuel shortages have paralyzed public transportation. Bus services in Havana operate at less than 30% of pre-2025 capacity, while intercity routes have been suspended or reduced to irregular schedules. Private vehicle use has plummeted due to gasoline prices exceeding 120 Cuban pesos per liter on the informal market — more than ten times the official rate — rendering car ownership impractical for most citizens.

The agricultural sector, already strained by limited access to fertilizers and pesticides, has seen planting cycles disrupted as tractors and irrigation pumps sit idle. Official data from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) released in March 2025 shows a 40% decline in domestic food production compared to the same period in 2024, worsening existing food insecurity. State-run markets report sporadic availability of basic goods such as rice, beans, and cooking oil, with long queues forming daily outside bodegas.

Healthcare facilities are operating under emergency conditions. Hospitals in provincial capitals rely on diesel generators that frequently fail due to fuel shortages, forcing the cancellation of elective surgeries and delaying critical treatments. The Ministry of Public Health acknowledged in a March 2025 statement that insulin, antibiotics, and oxygen supplies are intermittently unavailable in one-third of municipalities.

The humanitarian impact has prompted increased emigration. U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shows over 78,000 Cubans attempted to enter the United States irregularly between October 2024 and March 2025 — a 60% increase from the same period the previous year — with many citing lack of medicine, food, and electricity as primary motivations.

Internationally, Cuba’s allies have offered limited relief. Venezuela, despite its own economic constraints, has maintained minimal oil deliveries through spot transactions, though these are inconsistent and insufficient to meet demand. Mexico and Jamaica have provided small shipments of diesel via CARICOM energy cooperation frameworks, but these contributions remain marginal relative to Cuba’s needs.

The Cuban government has responded with energy conservation measures, including mandatory reduced workweeks for state employees, earlier closing times for businesses, and the prioritization of fuel for essential services such as hospitals and emergency response. Officials have also promoted the use of biogas and solar microgrids in rural areas, though scaling these alternatives remains hampered by financing and technical constraints.

Analysts at the Brookings Institution and the Cuba Study Group at Georgetown University note that the current crisis echoes the Special Period of the 1990s, when the loss of Soviet subsidies triggered a similar collapse in energy and food availability. However, unlike that era, Cuba today lacks viable alternatives to replace Venezuelan oil, and its access to hard currency is further restricted by U.S. Financial sanctions that limit third-party trade.

As of April 2025, there are no public indications of a shift in U.S. Policy. The State Department has reiterated that sanctions will remain in place until Cuba demonstrates measurable progress on human rights and democratic reforms — conditions Havana has consistently rejected as interference in its internal affairs.

For now, millions of Cubans continue to navigate a reality where light, fuel, and food are uncertain commodities, and the optimism of Obama’s 2016 visit — marked by a historic speech in Havana and a Rolling Stones concert that same year — feels increasingly distant.